Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
MORNING OUTLOOK
Choppy trade continues with grains lower. SN is down 12 cents and near 15.67. SX is down 13 cents and near 14.43. SMN is near 386.7. BON is near 71.29. CN is down 8 cents and near 6.72. CZ is down 11 cents and near 5.98. WN is down 6 cents and near 6.78. KWN is down 6 cents and near 6.25. MWN is down 20 cents and near 7.50. US stocks are mixed. US Dollar is marginally lower. Crude is higher. China Dalian soybean, corn, palmoil and soyoil futures were lower.
For the month to date wheat prices are up 15 1/4 in SRW, up 12 1/4 in HRW, up 22 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 53; Soybeans up 71 3/4; Soymeal down $8.70; Soyoil up 6.87.
China PPI date up 9 pct and largest increase in 12 years. Inflation concerns weighing on grain prices.
Rains fell across ND overnight. GFS weather model is wetter for US north plains. EU and Canadian models are drier. Russia, Brazil and Argentina are dry.
Official US Census soybean and corn April exports were higher than inspections. Sep-April Corn is up 150 mil bu and soybeans up 124 mil bu from season to date inspections data. This may have triggered Tuesdays rally.
USDA report Thursday. USDA is not expected to change US 2021 corn acres and yield. Some could see higher US 2021/22 demand and a carryout near 1,200 vs USDA 1,507. Some talk Brazil corn crop near 85-87 mmt. Informa est US 2021/22 carryout near 1,738 due to est of acres closer to 96.8 vs USDA 91.1
Some feel USDA will keep US 20/21 soybean carryout at 120 mil bu. They will not change US 2021 acres and yield. Some could see higher US 2021/22 demand and a carryout near 110 vs USDA 140.
USDA could increase US 2021 wheat crop but eventually a lower HRW crop could offset higher SRW.
On Tuesday, Managed funds were net buyers of 2,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; 12,000 corn; 12,000 soybeans; 6,000 soyoil and 3,000 soymeal. We estimate Managed Money to be net short 2,000 SRW Wheat; net long 300,000 Corn; long 177,000 Soybeans; long 14,000 Soymeal, and; net long 112,000 Soyoil.
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