Written Commentary
Global Ag News For May 21.2025
May 21, 2025
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed to lower. Crude is near $57. Talk Saudi will increase production weighs on Crude. OPEC may also be trying to lower prices to stop increase US production. US Dollar is lower. US stocks are lower. Fridays jobs data suggest strong US economy and less chance of Fed rate cut. Gold is higher. $1.8 trillion Norway wealth fund is invested in mostly US stocks and fears it could lose $600 billion. Warren Buffett is now ready to retire year end from his 1.16 trillion firm.
SOYBEANS
SN is near 10.52. Last week, Managed funds increased their soybean and soyoil long and soymeal short. Brazil fob soybean price in now cheaper than US. This could lower demand for US soybean exports. Some are looking for US 24/25 soybean carryout near 374 vs USDA 374 and 25/26 630. 24/25 key is US exports. SN first resistance is 10.70. Choppy trade continues due to US summer weather unknow, political unknown and currency volatility.
CORN
CN is near 4.66.Talk of increase competition from Brazil and Ukraine and feed wheat dropped CN-CZ spread to 17. Managed funds reduced their new long futures position last week. Turkey is reducing import tax for 1.0 mmt for MJJ. Could buy Ukraine corn. Some could see final Ukraine crop up 5-7 mmt from USDA 26.8. Some are looking for US 24/25 carryout near 1,500 vs USDA 1,465 and 25/26 2,020. 24/25 key is US exports.
WHEAT
WN is near 5.41. WN resistance is 5.48. Managed funds increased their net Chicago and KC wheat shorts last week. Some are looking for US 2025/26 wheat carryout near 863, others 785. Key is final crop size and exports. World wheat trade in flux with buyers hand to mouth and for now, no real weather concerns. There is talk dry weather across key China wheat areas could increase their imports to 9-13 mmt vs 3.5 this year.
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