Written Commentary
Ag Market View for May 20.25
May 20, 2025
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
May Day. Many countries on holiday. Grains are mixed. Crude is lower and near $56. Talk of increase Saudi production negative. US Dollar is higher. US stocks are higher. Gold and silver are lower. There is talk of possible trade talks with countries, GM said tariffs would cause $5 bill loss. US S/C plains is wet. N plains dry. N Germany and Poland drying. N China is dry. Black Sea mostly dry. China April PMI down to 49.
SOYBEANS
SN is near 10.39. Funds liquidated longs due to less concern about US 2025 weather and lack of China buying US soybeans. Open interest continues to drop. Dalian and Malaysian futures are closed for holiday. US exporting renewable diesel for first time. Argentina est crop at 48.6 mmt with harvest at 24 pct vs 12 ly. Some are looking for US 24/25 soybean carryout near 400 vs USDA 374 and 25/26 650.
Others are 340 and 585. 24/25 key is US exports. Weekly US soybean export sales are est at 150-600 mt vs 277 last week. Soymeal 150-400 mt vs 170 last week. Cargill, BTG Pactual Commodities and a consortium formed by Louis Dreyfus and Brazilian grain trader Amaggi have won rights to operate three separate terminals at Paranagua port on Wednesday.
CORN
CN is near 4.78. USDA announced 120 mt US corn to unknown. Dalian corn futures are closed for holiday. US corn is competitive to buyers for MJJ. Weekly US corn sales est at 700-1,500 mt vs 1,152 last week. Turkey is reducing import tax for 1.0 mmt for MJJ. Could buy Ukraine corn. Weekly ethanol production was up 5.4 pvt vs ly. Stocks were down .4 pct vs ly. Some are looking for US 24/25 carryout near 1,500 vs USDA 1,465 and 25/26 2,020. Others are 1,465 and 2,280. 24/25 key is US exports.
WHEAT
WN is near 5.33. KWN is near 5.32. MWN is near 5.95. Australia and Argentina forecast is dry. Sep Matif is near 15 month low and futures contract spreads continue to widen. Weekly US old crop wheat export sales are est at -200 to 300, new crop 100-400 vs -145 and 100-400 respectively. Some are looking for US 2025/26 wheat carryout near 863, others 785. Key is final crop size and export.
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