Can Soybeans Sustain Rallies?



Grains are lower. SH is down 6 cents and near 11.73. SMH is near 344.8. BOH is near 45.39. CH is down 1 cent and near 4.18. WH is down 3 cents and near 5.79. KWH is down 1 cent and near 5.84. MWH is down 2 cents and near 6.63. US stocks are lower awaiting new tech earnings. US Dollar is higher. Crude is lower on more demand worries.



SH is near 11.73. There remain question if soybean futures can sustain rallies before SA harvest. Brazil crop tour est crop at 152 mmt. Most of Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay will be dry. Dalian soybean futures were flat, soymeal and soyoil prices were lower. Palmoil was higher. US season to date exports are down 23 pct vs ly. US soybean export price is near $463 with Brazil $411. US soymeal is near $416 with Brazil $404. Brazil Feb soymeal exports could be record. Argentina cheapest June onward. China bought 10-12 Brazil soybean cargoes. US soybean crush margins softer with crush near record.

CH is near 4.18. Futures remain oversold. Managed funds near record short corn futures. Some are worried about Brazil monsoon ending and could stress Brazil 2nd crop. US season to date corn exports up 32 pct vs ly and USDA est of a 23 pct increase. US corn export price is near $190, Brazil $183 and Ukraine $167. Most of US Midwest is warm and dry. Dry rest of Feb could raise talk of drier US summer. Cash US corn prices near or below farmer breakeven.

WH is near 5.79. KWH 5.84. MWH 6.63. There was no good reason for Tuesday short covering rally. EU, Russia and Australia wheat prices continue to trend lower. Season to date US exports are down 18 pct. US plains are dry and warm. US wheat export price is near $253, Russia $217.

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