Written Commentary
Ag Market View for Nov 29.23
November 29, 2023
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SF is up 4 cents and near 13.44. SMF is near 430.6. BOF is near 51.60. CH is up 1 cent and near 4.86. WH is up 1 cent and near 5.76. KWH is down 2 cents and near 6.25. MWH is down 1 cent and near 7.30. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is higher. Gold is lower. Crude is higher on talk of OPEC lowering production. Short week. CBOT closed Thursday for Holiday. Reopens Friday at 8:30. Closes Friday at 12:05.
SF is near 13.44. Forecast for Brazil showers this week could weigh on soybean futures. The extended C/N Brazil has showers. Liberal candidate won the Argentina Presidential election. Over the weekend, US and China pledged the end of fossil fuel. This could increase demand for soyoil and renewable fuel. Soymeal futures have backed off on talk of normal Argentina 2024 crop/weather and higher US domestic crush capacity for soyoil. One group lowered US 2023/24 soybean carryout 17 mil bu due to lower crop est and 20 mil bu increase in crush and 5 mil bu increase in exports vs USDA. They est US 2024 yield at 53 and carryout near 455. Dalian soymeal, palmoil and soyoil prices were lower. There is talk that China may offer financial support to 50 property companies.
CH is near 4.86. US domestic basis firmed on talk of higher demand due to lower gas prices. Brazil showers this week could weigh on corn futures. The extended C/N Brazil has showers. Argentina elected the liberal candidate. No one knows what this means but could be a change in policy direction. US and China pledged the end of fossil fuel. This could decrease demand for ethanol. One group raised US 2023/24 corn carryout 100 mil bu. US exports were lowered 175 mil bu. Ethanol use was increased 75 mil bu. They est US 2024 yield at 181 and carryout near 2,819.
KC wheat futures are lower. Russia is still offering wheat exports at lower prices but some could see prices near a bottom. US and Matif wheat futures continues to drift lower trying to find new export demand. US HRW is seeing some showers. EU and Black Sea weather is normal. There is still talk of a new Ukraine export corridor and insurance that could increase their exports. One group est US 2024 crop at 1,915 vs 1,812 this past year and 2024/25 carryout near 768 vs 684 this past year.
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