Written Commentary
Ag Market View for May 20.25
May 20, 2025
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. Crude is higher and near $58. US Dollar is lower. US stocks are lower. Gold is higher. Hope is fading for swift trade war resolution. Companies like T Rowe Price, Jet Blue, Polaris, UP, Marsh McClenan, Invesco and Universities from Harvard to Duke talking about pause in hiring. Ford announced tariff related cost could reduce pretax earnings by $1.5 billion. US rains south and dry north. EU rains south and dry north. Russia dry.
SOYBEANS
SN is near 10.44. Managed funds reduced soybean and soyoil long and increased soymeal short. Dalian soybean, soymeal, palmoil and soyoil futures were lower. Brazil fob soybean price in now cheaper than US. This could lower demand for US soybean exports. Weekly US soybean export are up 11 pct vs ly and USDA up 8. Some are looking for US 24/25 soybean carryout near 374 vs USDA 374 and 25/26 630. 24/25 key is US exports. USDA est US soybeans 30 pct planted vs 24 ly and 23 average. AR 58,MS 64, IL 33, MO 28, OH 23, IA 38, MN 22 and NE 34.
CORN
CN is near 4.56.Talk of increase competition from Brazil and Ukraine and feed wheat dropped CN-CZ spread to 11. Managed funds reduced their net long futures position. Some could see final Ukraine crop up 5-7 mmt from USDA 26.8. Some are looking for US 24/25 carryout near 1,500 vs USDA 1,465 and 25/26 2,020. 24/25 key is US exports. US exports are up 29 pct vs ly and USDA up 11. USDA est US corn 40 pct planted vs 35 ly and 39 average. IL 32, IN 26, OH 22, IA 49, MN 44 and NE 50.
WHEAT
WN is near 5.34. Managed funds increased their net Chicago and KC wheat shorts. Some are looking for US 2025/26 wheat carryout near 863, others 785. Key is final crop size and exports. US wheat exports are up 14 pct vs USDA up 16. USDA increased US winter wheat crop rating to 51 pct G/E. KS 47, OK 48, TX 32, AR 45, MO 76 and WA 78. USDA est US spring wheat plantings at 44 pct vs 34 average.
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