Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. SH is up 5 cents and near 13.58. SMH is near 407.8. BOH is near 51.37. CH is up 2 cents and near 4.83. WH is up 3 cents and near 6.12. KWH is up 5 cents and near 6.37. MWH is up 1 cent and near 7.13. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is higher. Metals are higher in front of US inflation data. Crude is also supported by missile strike of Norwegian ship in Red Sea.
CH followed lower wheat futures. Season to date US corn exports are up 26 pct vs ly. US is competitive with Brazil export prices near 6.50. Rallies above 5.00-5.10 could find famer selling. N/E Brazil weather forecast is dry. USDA est Argentina corn crop up 34 mmt vs ly but Brazil down 8 mmt. Lower Brazil crop offset by higher 2023 Brazil crop supply. 1st Brazil crop est at 25 mmt which would supply 4 months use. Safrina crop not available until July. USDA est Ukraine corn exports at 21 mmt vs 27 ly. Some suggest US farmers should increase 2023 cash sales near 5.05 CH24 and 2024 sales near 5.25 CX24.
Soybeans rallied sharply on Monday and is higher overnight. Some feel SH is supported by higher US soybean crush and less than ideal Brazil weather. Some could also see US 2023/24 soybean carryout to drop to closer to 215 and offers little room for new export demand. Same group est Brazil crop closer to 155 mmt vs USDA 161. Crop may need to drop below 150 before SH can trade closer and over 14.00. USDA est total SA soybean crop up 25 mmt vs ly. Use is est up 8 pct, mostly Argentina crush with net increase of supply 10 mmt. Season to date US exports are down 16 pct vs ly and vs USDA est of a 12 pct drop. USDA announced 132 mt US soybeans to unknown. Dalian soybean, soymeal, palmoil amd soyoil futures were higher following US futures. Some suggest US farmers should increase 2024 cash sales near 13.00 SX24.
Wheat futures were sharply lower on Monday. Talk that China may be done buying US wheat and KS/TX forecasted rains triggered new selling. Managed funds are net short all 3 wheats 170,000 contracts. WH had rallied 75 cents in 7 days and was overbought. And now uncompetitive vs other origins. Wheat futures will need more supply concerns and increase US demand to push higher KWH is trying to find support near the 20 DMA.
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