Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. SH is down 3 cents and near 11.67. SMH is near 343.1. BOH is near 45.81. CH is down 1 cent and near 4.22. WH is down 5 cents and near 5.80. KWH is down 5 cents and near 5.82. MWH is down 1 cents and near 6.61. China is on Holiday. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is lower. IEA says global oil demand growth is losing momentum. EU cut 2024 ad 2025 eurozone growth forecast.
SH is near 11.68. USDA Outlook next 2 days. Most look for US 2024 soybean acres near 86.7 mil vs 83.6 ly. US 2024/25 carryout 420 despite record crush. Jan NOPA crush est 189.9 vs Dec 195.3 but new record for Jan. Soyoil stocks highest since July One group estimates World 2024 soybean crop near 414 mmt vs 394 this past year. Brazil up 13 mmt and US up 9 mmt. Weekly soybean sales est at 300-800 mt. Soybeans traded lower on prospects of bearish USDA Ag forum numbers, better SA crop prospects, Fed slowing rate cut and lower China demand.
CH is near 4.22. USDA Outlook next 2 days. Most look for US 2024 corn acres near 91.6 mil vs 94.6 ly. US 2024/25 carryout is est at 2,493 mil bu vs 2,172 this year. Weekly US ethanol prod was up 5 pct from last week and 7 pct vs ly. Stocks were up 4 pct from last week and 2 pct vs ly. One group estimates World 2024 corn crop near 1,252 mmt vs 1,235 this past year. Brazil up 10 mmt, EU up 4 mmt and China up 2 mmt offset a 3 mmt drop in Russia/Ukraine. Brazil back from holiday. FOB corn prices lower on talk of higher safrina seed sales and quick soybean harvest pace. EU and Black Sea corn prices are lower. Weekly corn sales est at 800-1,500 mt
WH is near 5.80. KWH 5.82. MWH 6.61. KWH new lows. Australia wheat futures sharply lower. USDA Outlook next 2 days. Most look for US 2024 wheat acres near 47.5 mil vs 49.6 ly. US 2024/25 carryout is est at 720 mil bu vs 658 this year. One group estimates World 2024 wheat crop near 805 mmt vs 785 this past year. Canada up 5 mmt, EU up 4 mmt, China up 5 mmt and Russia/Ukraine up 2 mmt. Weekly wheat sales est at 300-500 mt. Egypt is in for a wheat tender for April Some feel World demand may be slowing as Fed delays rate cuts, lower EU and World growth forecast and weakening importer purchasing power.
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