Written Commentary
Ag Market View for May 20.25
May 20, 2025
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. US Dollar is slightly higher. US stocks are lower on inflation risk. Crude is slightly higher. Gold is slightly lower. Copper is slightly higher. Bitcoin is lower on increasing hacking.
SOYBEANS
SK is near 10.48. Dalian soybean, soymeal and palmoil were lower. BOK supported by talk of Canda tariffs. US soybean exports are up 14 pct vs ly and USDA up 8. Soybean futures dropped on China tariff risk and reduced US/China relations. One crop analyst est Brazil soybean crop at 170 mmt vs USDA 169 and Argentina 48 mmt vs USDA 49. US Ag Forum this week. Trade est US 2025 soybean acres at 84.4 vs 87.1 last year. Trade est US 2025/26 soybean end stocks at 367 mil bu vs 2024/25 380. C/N Brazil rains could slow harvest. S/E is dry. N Argentina is dry. Rest of Argentina should see normal rains.
CORN
CK is near 4.95. Dalian corn was lower. China talking increase domestic corn supply and reducing imports. Mexico tariffs are negative. US cash basis is lower and there is talk of March corn deliveries. US corn exports are up 32 pct vs ly and USDA up 7. MG Brazil plantings 67 pct vs 90 ly. US Ag Forum this week. Trade est US 2025 corn acres at 93.5 vs 90.6 last year. Trade est US 2025/26 corn end stocks at 1,907 mil bu vs 2024/25 1,540. Argentina and S Brazil is seeing rains. Dry N/C weather helping 2nd corn crop plantings. 80-85 pct of MG corn is planted. One crop analyst est Brazil corn crop at 123 mmt vs USDA 126 and Argentina 46 mmt vs USDA 50.
WHEAT
WK is near 5.88. KWK is near 6.06. MWK is near 6.36. WK is down almost 30 cents from last weeks high on reduced Russia weather concerns. US wheat exports are up 21 pct vs ly and USDA up 20 pct. US plains will remain dry with moderating temps. Russia crops did not see damage due to cold temps. Black Sea crops could see moderate temps and better chance for rain. India is warm and dry. West EU rains could drop French wheat quality. US Ag Forum this week. Drop in Russia export tax improved Russia shippers profit margins. Trade est US 2025 wheat acres at 46.7 vs 46.1 last year. Trade est US 2025/26 wheat end stocks at 829 mil bu vs 2024/25 794.
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