Written Commentary
Ag Market View for June 2.23
June 2, 2023
Beans Drop on Lower Brazil Export Prices
- April 26, 2023
- Steve Freed
- Follow us on Twitter @TradeADMIS
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SN is up 4 cents and near 14.21. SMN is near 435.3. BON is near 52.24. CN is unch and near 6.08. WN is unch and near 6.53. KWN is down 3 cents and near 8.00. MWN is up 3 cents and near 8.39. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is higher but remains is a $76-$79 range. Gold, silver, copper, coffee, sugar and cotton are higher.
July soybean futures have dropped from 15.01 on April 18 to yesterday’s low near 14.11. Most of the drop was due to long liquidation due to record Brazil soybean crop being sold into market which dropped Brazil soybean export prices 250 cents below US. China is buying only Brazil for now. This could drop US exports from USDA last guess. US soybean board crush margins are a tale of 2 markets. Nearby May dropped to 73 cents. SK-SX spread near 182. Sep margin is 195. Market trying to find value with lower US export demand and higher longterm crush demand. USDA Brazil Ag Attaché est 2024 soybean crop at 159 mmt vs 153 this year.
July corn futures have dropped from 6.47 on April 18 to yesterday’s low near 6.01 due to talk of lower Brazil summer corn prices reducing final US exports. Trade will be watching todays US ethanol data for demand outlook but Thursday export sales could be disappointing after China cancellation of open sales. Matif corn is making new contract lows. There was talk that ship Captains and vessel owners have been asked to sign letters saying they understand that Ukraine corridor deal will end May 18. USDA Argentina Ag Attaché est 2024 corn crop at 54 mmt vs 37 this year. There was one US summer weather forecast calling for normal rains in NE, SW IA and MO. Below normal east and south. Temps normal north but above south and east.
July KC wheat futures have dropped from 8.86 on April 18 to yesterday’s low near 7.94 due to rains across the dry areas of US HRW growing areas. WN is lower after annual soft red meeting participants estimated US 2023 wheat crop at 400 mil bu vs 337 ly. MWN supported by continues wet and cold weather adding to talk of lower planted acres and higher prevent plant. Australia wheat futures new lows. EL Nino dry forecast could offer support. More talk of Ukraine corridor deal will end May 18. There are 58 vessels waiting inspection, 4 were inspected yesterday and 11 new vessels arrived. There is talk that Russia government has advised wheat export sellers not to sell wheat below $275 which could establish a floor in Russia export prices near $275.
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