Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SH is down 7 cents and near 12.20. SMH is near 370.6. BOH is near 46.62. CH is down 1 cent and near 4.42. WH is up 3 cents and near 5.85. KWH is unch and near 6.02. MWH is down 1 cent and near 6.90. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is mixed. Crude is lower. China 2023 economic growth was less than expected.
CH is near 4.42.CH lowest since Dec, 2020. Season to date US corn exports are near 528 mil bu, up 29 pct vs last year vs USDA est of up 26 pct. There is new talk that Argentina corn crop could be record 60 mmt vs USDA 55. There though is talk of lower Brazil crop with some est below 120 mmt vs USDA 127. Brazil is less competitive to US but Ukraine and now Argentina is now lower than US.
SH is near 12.22. China population dropped 2 million to 1.4 billion and now below India. China birth rate is still on decline. Some are now dropping China soybean imports below 100 mmt. NOPA US Dec crush was record 195 mil bu but soyoil stocks increased 12 pct vs last month. There is a wide spread is estimates of Brazil soybean crop from 135 to 153 vs USDA 157. C/N Brazil is turning drier. Season to date US soybean exports were 940 mil bu or down 21 pct vs ly an vs USDA est of a 12 pct drop.
WH is near 5.85. KWH is near 6.01. MWH is near 6.90. Algeria bought 900 mt wheat thought to be from EU. Matif wheat futures though made new lows. Egypt is in today for LH March wheat. Most est Russia origin but spread between EU and Russia has narrowed. None of this will help demand for US wheat. Season to date US wheat exports are near 381 mil bu or down 16 pct vs ly while USDA est a 4 pct drop. US futures and spreads are weakening and taking off the premium added after China bought US SRW. There is talk that 2 China vessels are at US gulf to load US SRW. 20 pct of US winter wheat crop was exposed to recent sharply cold temps.
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