Written Commentary
Ag Market View for May 20.25
May 20, 2025
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. Crude is near $62. OPEC is considering increase in production in June. This along with talk of slower World economies could lower demand could limit upside to Crude. US Dollar is lower. US stocks are lower. China said they are not in negotiations with US concerning tariffs. Gold is higher.
SOYBEANS
SN is near 10.56. China Dalian soybean, soymeal, soyoil and palmoil futures were higher. Some buying could be linked to dry north China weather. Some feel favorable US corn planting weather could increase final US corn acres and lower soybean. SN-SU spread rallied to +30 on talk of tighter US old crop supply. Trump talk of final China tariffs will be lower than 145 pct is helping SN. Brazil farmer increased soybean cash sales. Soyoil futures waiting for US administration to set biofuel policy that could increase demand versus increase in US crush capacity. Weekly US soybean export sales are est at 200-600 mt vs 554 last week.
CORN
CN is near 4.81. CU-CZ spread has widened out to-10 carry. Dalian corn futures were higher on talk of drier NE China weather. South US and east rains could slow plantings there. This year, favorable US Midwest weather could also increase final corn acres. This could weigh on CZ. Brazil rains is increasing talk of higher safrina crop production. One crop watch increased Brazil corn crop closer to 127 vs 119 ly. Brazil corn futures are near 4 month low. Weekly US ethanol production was up 8 pct vs ly. Stocks were down 1 pct vs ly. Weekly US corn export sales are est at 800-1,300 mt vs 1,561 last week.
WHEAT
WN is near 5.42. KWN is near 5.47. MWN is near 6.04. KWK making new contract lows. US south and east rains could stress US SRW crop. EU model has rains for dry US plains. Russia forecast is for scattered light rains. Some now estimating EU crop could be up 10 mmt vs ly. This is and demand concerns is weighing on EU wheat prices. Some feel higher crops is Iraq, Iran, Pakistan and Turkey could lower import demand there. Russia and Ukraine wheat exports could be only 54 mmt vs 71 last year. Weekly US export sales are est near -150 to 200 mt vs 76 last week on new crop 100-300 mt vs 273 last week.
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