Written Commentary
Ag Market View for May 20.25
May 20, 2025
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed to slightly higher. Crude is near $62. US Dollar is lower. US stocks are mixed to slightly higher. Gold is lower. US March sales of existing home sales dropped to lowest level in 2 years. Despite low inventories. Economic uncertain and rates holding near 6.5 pct is reducing interest.
On thirst Thursday, Managed funds were even Chicago wheat, bought 2,000 soybeans, 7,000 soyoil and 6,000 corn and sold 2,000 soymeal. We now estimate funds to be short 101,000 Chicago wheat, 95,000 soymeal, long 34,000 soybeans, 51.000 soyoil and 133,000 corn.
SOYBEANS
SN is near 10.63. Soybean open interest in decline. Daily volume has been declining in April but increase last 3 session. Good weekly US export sales is helping SN. China Dalian soybean, soyoil and palmoil futures were higher. Some feel favorable US corn planting weather could increase final US corn acres and lower soybean. Soyoil futures rallied on talk of lower India tariffs and India opening import market to US soyoil. This is helping board crush margins. Weekly US soybean export commit is up 13 pct vs ly and USDA up 7. Canada canola exports are 7.4 mmt vs 4.2 ly. CME announced increase daily soybean price limit from 70 cents to 75 effective April 30.
CORN
CN is near 4.85. Corn open interest in decline. Daily volume has been declining in April but increase last 3 session. CN-CZ is near +29. Dalian corn futures were higher on talk of drier NE China weather. South US and east rains could slow plantings there. This year, favorable US Midwest weather could also increase final corn acres. Brazil rains is increasing talk of higher safrina crop production. Argentina corn harvest is near 30 pct. Weekly US corn export commit is up 25 pct vs ly and USDA up 11. CME announced increase daily corn price limit from 30 cents to 35 effective April 30.
WHEAT
WN is near 5.44. KWN is near 5.50. MWN is near 6.09. US south and east rains could stress US SRW crop. US plains negative. ussia forecast is for scattered light rains. Some feel higher crops is Iraq, Iran, Pakistan and Turkey could lower import demand there. EU wheat trade termed dead with farmer not selling and little export demand. Weekly US export sales were negative. Total commit is up 13 pct vs ly and USDA up 16. Canada wheat exports are 18.6 mmt vs 17.2 ly. CME left Chicago wheat daily price limit at 40 cents . Managed funds remain record short US and EU and do not see volatility returning soon and seem happy to keep harvesting carries.
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