Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. SX is up 9 cents and near 12.92. SMZ is near 343.2. BOZ is near 57.65. CZ is up 5 cents and near 5.26. WZ is up 3 cent3 and near 7.04. KWZ is up 3 cents and near 7.05. MWZ is up 2 cents and near 8.89.
US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Gold is lower. Crude is higher.
Hope of more US gulf elevators will soon be operational is helping US fob corn and soybean basis. Tech speaking; CZ next resistance is 5.32. SX resistance is 13.00 then 13.32. WZ resistance 7.11 then 7.19.
Dry US 2 week Midwest weather forecast should speed up maturation and harvest. Top in yields.
Dalian soyoil, palmoil and corn futures are higher. Soybean is lower. China buying expensive Brazil beans. China buying rallied Brazil soybean price. But lowered soybean crush margins. Crush slowing. Argentina lowered 2022 soybean crop to 44 mmt vs USDA 52. Raised corn to record 55 mmt.
USDA est Brazil 2022 soybean crop at 144 mmt vs 137 ly, Argentina 52.0 vs 46 last year. USDA est Brazil 2022 corn crop 118 mmt vs 86 ly. Argentina 53 vs 50. Early US corn yields below est.
Lower Canada canola crop is helping World rapeseed prices. Higher demand helping palmoil.
Trade still thinks Russia and EU wheat exports will be below USDA est. World demand higher. Argentina raised wheat crop to 20 mmt after last week rains. China buying French feed wheat.
Most will use USDA 176.3 corn, 50.6 soybean yields. Dry end to summer has some near 173.0 and 49.5. Most analyst est US 20/21 corn carryout near USDA 1,187, but 21/22 near 1,200 vs USDA 1,408. Most analyst est US 20/21 soybean carryout near USDA 175, but 21/22 near 150 vs USDA 185. Most analyst est US 21/22 wheat carryout near 565 vs USDA 615. Key imports and demand.
Weekly US ethanol production and stocks could be up slightly from last week. Corn basis sharply higher.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
