Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SX is down 7 cents and near 12.65. SMZ is near 369.2. BOZ is near 55.28. CZ is down 1 cent and near 4.84. WZ is up 2 cents and near 5.62. KWZ is up 4 cents and near 6.71. MWZ is up 4 cents and near 7.16. US Dollar is higher. Crude is lower. US stocks are lower. US rates higher and longer? China economy still slow. World weather is not perfect yet.
Soybean futures are lower. China is still on Holiday. US soybean export price is higher to China. Versus Brazil and Argentina. Parts of Brazil and Argentina remains dry. S Brazil is wet, slowing plantings and export loadings. Slow S Brazil export pace could extend their export season. US Midwest weather is mostly dry. This should increase harvest pace. Below normal rains continue to lower water levels. World vegoil prices are lower due to concern over China and India demand. Weekly US soybean export sales are est at 400-900 mt vs 672 last week.
Corn futures are slightly higher. Parts of Brazil and Argentina remains dry. S Brazil is wet, slowing plantings and export loadings. US Midwest weather should be mostly dry with should increase harvest. Unconfirmed rumors suggest Ukraine export corridor may now be open with Russia support. Ukraine corn prices and Brazil are lower than US. CZ-CH spread continues to widen do to slow exports. US ethanol margins are positive but deferred margins are lower due to carry in corn futures and inverse in ethanol futures. Weekly US corn export sales are est at 1,400-2,000 mt vs 541 last week.
Wheat futures are higher. Wheat futures had tepid response after US sold SRW wheat to China. Some feel recent drop in futures has made US SRW competitive to China. Still WZ-WH continues to widen due to low exports. Some forecast US October weather drier and warmer than normal. W Australia remains dry. East is wet. Australia wheat futures are lower. Russia is dry. Argentina is dry. S Brazil remains too wet. More vessels are entering Black Sea to load grains from Ukraine. Weekly US wheat export sales are est at 250-600 mt vs 544 last week.
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