Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. USDA report today. SX is down 5 cents and near 13.63. SMZ is near 404.3. BOZ is near 60.14. CZ is down 1 cent and near 4.84. WZ is down 4 cents and near 5.80. KWZ is down 4 cents and near 7.19. MWZ is up 2 cents and near 7.69. US stocks are lower US Dollar is higher. Crude is higher and near $88. Gold, silver, copper and sugar are lower. Cotton is higher.
Soybean futures are lower. USDA report today. Trade est US soybean yield near 50.2 vs 50.9 in August. One crop scout lowered US soybean yield to 49.5. Best crops are in 19 pct of acres and include AR, IN,KY,TN and OH. Lowest crops are in 44 pct of acres an include IA, MN, NE, ND and WI. Brazil 2024 soybean plantings have slowed due to dry weather. Soybean export loadings have slowed due to wet weather in south ports. China soybean imports are record high. Dalian soybean and soymeal futures were lower. Malaysian supply data was negative and weighed on palmoil futures and Dalian soyoil.
Corn futures remain near key support. US and EU corn harvest is starting which limits fund buying. Brazil corn exports are supported by low US Miss river logistics and slow Ukraine exports. Trade est US corn yield near 173.5 vs 175.1 in August. Best crops are in 16 pct of acres and include IN,KY,TN and OH. Lowest crops are in 54 pct of acres an include IA, MN, NE, SD and WI. USDA estimated that 5 pct of US crop is harvested and 82 pct of crop is dent and 34 pct mature vs 24 ly.
Wheat futures have made new lows due to record Russia monthly wheat exports vs lower US and EU. World wheat supply trend is lower especially Australia. Funds continue to be short wheat futures and willing to keep position in carry market and roll up to next contract. USDA estimated US winter wheat plantings near 7 pct and spring wheat harvest near 87 pct. Will trade now focus on lower S Hemisphere supply or lower US/EU exports.
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