Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed to higher. SF is up 5 cents and near 13.11. SMF is near 409.1. BOF is near 51.14. CH is up 1 cent and near 4.86. WH is up 3 cents and near 6.23. KWH is up 1 cent and near 6.59. MWH is down 1 and near 7.35. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is mixed. Crude is higher. On Monday, gold made all-time highs near 2,152. Moody downgraded China economy to negative.
SF is near 13.11. Weekly US soybean exports were below expectations. Season to date exports are down 14 pct vs ly.vs USDA down 12 pct. Lower trade also linked to forecast of good rains across the dry areas on C/N Brazil. CONAB est Brazil soybean crop at 162.4 mmt vs USDA 163.0 and one private est of 157 and 158 ly. Trade est US 2023/24 soybean carryout near 243 vs USDA 245. Trade watching post Argentina new President inauguration policy esp fate of export taxes. USDA est Argentina soybean crop at 48 mmt vs 25 ly.
CH is near 4.86. There remains talk that China Sino Grain may have been given approval to buy more corn. Trade est US 2023/24 corn carryout near 2,152. US corn exports are up 27 pct vs ly and USDA est of an 25 pct increase. USDA announced 267 mt new sales to Mexico. CONAB est Brazil corn crop at 119 mmt down 10 mmt vs USDA 129. USDA est Argentina corn crop at 55 mmt vs 34r ly.
Wheat futures are mixed. USDA announced 440 mt of US SRW to China. This had a quick positive reaction to futures. US south Plains forecast is warm and dry but for now farmers are mostly pleased with stands. KS farmers also increase cash sales before the rally to pay property tax bill. US exports ae down 24 pct vs ly. Stats Canada est wheat crop at 31.9 mmt vs USDA 31 and 34 ly. Trade est US 2023/24 wheat carryout near 689. Australia crop est at 25.5 mmt vs USDA 24.5 and 39.7 ly.
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