Written Commentary
Euro Drops on Lagarde’s Growth Warning Amid Tariff Tensions
March 20, 2025
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. US stocks are mixed. US Dollar is higher. Crude is lower. Gold is higher. US Senate democrats may support House budget resolution. EU imposed 25 pct tariff on US goods including Ag.
SOYBEANS
SK is near 10.06.. Dalian soybean was lower, soymeal and soyoil were higher. Palmoil was higher, Rosario exchange est Argentina soybean crop at 46.5 mmt vs USDA 49. Most est are closer to 49. China imposed tariffs on Canada canola oil which is weighing on canola prices. Brazil soybean basis is firmer on increase demand. Weekly US soybean export sales are est at 275-700 mt. Soymeal are est at 190-400 mt. SK holding 10.00 support and SMK is holding at 300. Some say trade is now unpredictable choppy.
CORN
CK is near 4.63. CK holding 4.60 support. 4.55 is key support. Dalian corn futures were lower. E Brazil and Argentina remain dry. Rosario exchange est Argentina corn crop at 44.5 mmt vs USDA 50. US NW Midwest is dry. Rains in ECB and SE. US PNW corn prices remain cheapest to Asia buyers and now gulf to North Africa. Weekly US corn export sales are est at 725 -1,400 mt. Weekly US ethanol production was up 3.7 pct vs last year. Stocks were up 6.2 pct vs last year. EU tariffs on US corn negative. EU has bought 2.25 mmt US corn vs 100 mt last year. Some say trade is now unpredictable choppy.
WHEAT
WK is near 5.56. KWK is near 5.76. MWK is near 5.97. WK-WN spread has widened out to -16. US plains will remain dry with moderating temps. Black Sea is also dry. USDA raised World wheat end stocks. Trade looks for USDA to eventually reduce EU and Russia exports but this could be offset by lower imports and World end stocks. Non EU EU wheat exports are est at 30 year low. Argentina and Australia prices are now competitive to North Africa. Stats Canada est wheat acres at 19.4 mil vs 18.9 last year. Survey was taken before recent China tariffs on Canada canola. This could increase final wheat acres. US HRW export price is near $251 vs 277 last year this week, Argentina 240 vs 208, Australia 244 vs 240 and Russia 249 vs 198. Weekly US wheat export sales are est at 275-650 mt.
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