Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
SOYBEANS
Overnight soybeans traded higher on talk that China was pricing futures for recent purchases. China August soybean imports were 9.4 mmt. YTD imports are near 93 mmt. Sep imports only need to be near 4 mmt to reach USDA goal of 97 mmt. Soyoil was higher on talk of lower annual palmoil production and higher export demand. Futures turned lower on concern that US gulf exports could be delayed and that US cash basis levels to the river/gulf had collapsed. Chart based selling accelerated the drop in prices. SX ended near 12.77. Range was 12.76 to 13.05. Weekly soybean exports were only 2 mil bu. This starts a new marketing year. USDA est US 21/22 soybean exports near 2,055 mil bu vs 2,260 last year. Trade est US 2021 soybean crop near 4,377 mil bu vs USDA 4,339 and 21/22 soybean carryout at 190 mil bu vs USDA 155.
CORN
Corn futures traded lower and made new lows for the move. Wheat and soybean futures traded higher overnight on talk of higher demand. Corn futures failed to follow. CZ ended near 5.10 with a range of 5.10 to 5.26. Next support is 5.03. Futures turned lower on concern that US gulf exports could be delayed and that US cash basis levels to the river/gulf had collapsed. Chart based selling accelerated the drop in prices. Weekly corn exports were only 10 mil bu. This starts a new marketing year. USDA est US 21/22 corn exports near 2,400 mil bu vs 2,775 last year. Trade est US 2021 corn crop near 14,942 mil bu vs USDA 14,750 and 21/22 corn carryout at 1,382 mil bu vs USDA 1,242. There was talk that China was buying domestic pork for reserves. This to try to support domestic prices. This could lower imports and force US high futures and production lower. China also reported they may feed less corn in feed rations. This could reduce their corn import needs. Brazil corn exports could drop to 19 mmt vs USDA 23. Brazil is also starting 2022 corn planting season with soils dry.
WHEAT
Wheat futures ended lower. Lower corn and soybean futures weighed on Wheat futures. WZ ended near 7.20 with a range of 7.14 to 7.33. KWZ ended near 7.17 with range 7.15 to 7.29. MWZ ended near 9.08 with range 9.02 to 9.15. Paris wheat futures were lower. Last week, Informa drop crop production in Canada, EU and Kazakhstan. There is talk that Russia wheat crop and exports could also drop below USDA numbers. Australia raised their crop estimate to 32.6 mmt vs USDA 30.0 Weekly US wheat exports were near 14 mil bu vs 25 last year. Season to date exports are near 238 mil bu vs 274 last year. USDA goal is 875 vs 992 last year. Trade estimates US winter wheat 2022 crop planting pace near 4 pct. Recent rains have improved soils especially in KS.
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