Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
SOYBEANS
SX ended near 12.84. Bears feel slow US export pace could continue to weigh on futures. Bulls feel talk that US October soybean yield could drop below USDA Sep guess offers support. Overnight futures started higher on talk that late August and early Sep US Midwest weather could offer support. There ws also talk that steady China buying US soybean could offset the slow recover of the US gulf export capacity. Futures dropped to session low on a lack of follow through buying and continued slow US weekly exports. Weekly US exports were only 4 mil bu vs 60 last year. Also August soybean and soymeal exports dropped to 11.7 mmt vs 13.1 ly. Oct-Aug exports are near 155.3 mmt vs 159.3 ly. USDA Oct-Sep goal is 176.3 mmt vs 175.1 ly. Trade estimates US soybean crop will be rated 57 pct G/E versus 57 last week.
CORN
Corn futures ended lower. CZ ended near 5.13. Range was 5.07-5.19. CN2 ended near 5.26. CZ2 ended near 4.98. Weekly US exports were only 5 mil bu vs 37 last year. Most analyst feel final US 21/22 corn exports may be closer to 2,700 mil bu vs USDA 2,475. Trade estimates US corn crop will be rated 59 pct G/E vs 59 last week. 5 pct of the crop is expected to be harvested. Here again some feel final US corn yield could drop below USDA Sep est due to drier than normal US late August and early Sep. Corn will need more demand to push prices higher. Bulls are quick to remind the bears that last year, USDA Sep corn yield was 178.5 but final yield was 172.0. Drop was due to dry and warm August and Sep US Midwest weather. Bulls suggest that a similar drop this year would put the US corn yield near 170. That could suggest a test of 6.00 CZ post harvest. Managed funds are unwilling to buy corn after USDA raised US 21/22 corn carryout to 1,408 vs 1,242 in August. USDA also estimates World 2022 corn crop to reach 1,198 mmt or up 81 mmt. Brazil is est near 118 vs 86 last year, US 380 vs 360, Ukraine 39 vs 30 and Argentina 53 vs 50.
WHEAT
Wheat futures ended mixed. WZ was down 1 cent and near 6.87. KWZ ended up 3 cents and near 6.85. MWZ ended down 2 cents and near8.76. Wheat is fighting mixed news. Talk of higher 2002 World crops also limits new buying. Still some feel tight World 21/22 supplies and pick up in new global export demand offers support. One US Bank downgraded US economy due to Covid. Another though increased their outlook for Crude oil prices in 2022 to $100 due to cold US winter and more 2022 vaccinations could increase demand. Weekly US wheat exports were near 20 mil bu vs 25 last year. Season to date exports are near 260 vs 299 ly. Trade estimates US winter wheat planting pace near 12 pct vs 5 last week. Trade also est Canada 2021 wheat crop near 21.9 mmt versus 22.9 est in August.
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