Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
SOYBEANS
Soybeans and soymeal ended higher on light profit taking. Going into the USDA report, Spec traders were short looking for higher US and World soybean supplies. That is what the USDA gave them but US stocks are still relatively low. USDA actually lowered US 2021 soybean acres from 87.6 to 87.2. As expected, they raised US yield from 50.0 to 50.6. Yields were up in MN, IA, MO, AR, MS, AL and KY. There were down in SD, NE, KS, TX, PA and TN. USDA lowered US 20/21 crush 15 mil bu. Carryout was increased 15 to 175. USDA lowered US 20/21 soyoil biofuel demand 300 lbs and production 225. USDA lowered US soymeal prod 400 tst and domestic use 375 tst. USDA raised US 2021 crop 35 mil bu and lowered imports 10. They lowered US 21/22 crush 25 mil bu but raised exports 35. USDA dropped US 21/22 biofuel use 500 mil lbs and exports 200 mil lbs. USDA dropped US domestic 21/22 soymeal use 650 tst. They lowered US ave farm soybean price 80 cents to 12.90 and soymeal price 25 dollars/st. Weekly US soybean export sales were 54 mil bu. Total commit is near 772 vs 1,096 ly.
CORN
Corn futures ended higher. CZ ended near 5.17. Range was 4.97 to 5.24. Some might say that the corn market may have bought the fact after spending most of August selling the rumor. Trade was looking for USDA to raise US corn and sorghum 2021 acres, corn yield, US 20/21 and 21/22 corn carryout and World 21/22 corn end stocks. That is what the USDA gave them. Recent selling was due to damage the US gulf Hurricane did to US grain export elevators. There is word that 3 elevators may soon be operational with 2 more later this month. Outlook for remaining 7 is still unknown Fact the POTUS and POC talked last night about trade may have helped corn prices. USDA lowered US 20/21 ethanol and export use. This raised carryout 70 mil bu to 1,187. USDA raised US 2021 corn acres to 93.3 from 92.7 and yield from 174.6 to 176.3. USDA raised yields in ND, MN, IA, MO, AR,MS.AL and KY. They lowered yields in TX, SD, NE, KS, and TN. USDA raised US corn crop 246 mil bu. USDA raised 21/22 feed use 75 and export 75. The net change was an increase in carryout from 1,242 to 1,408. USDA lowered US average farm corn price 30 cents to 5.45. Weekly US corn export sales were 35 mil bu. Total commit is near 957 vs 742 ly.
WHEAT
Wheat futures ended mixed. WZ ended near 6.88 down 3 cents with a range of 6.77-6.95. KWZ ended unch and near 6.83 with a range of 6.70-6.88. MWZ ended up 6 cents and near 8.78 with a range of 8.61 to 8.84. USDA dropped US 21/22 supply 10 mil bu due to a lower import guess. USDA left US 2021 wheat acres near 46.7 despite fears of higher FSA acres. USDA raised 21/22 food use 2 mil bu. The net was a drop in carryout of 12 mil bu to 615. USDA dropped average farm wheat price 10 cents to 6.60. Last year was 5.05. USDA est HRW stocks at 347 vs 426 ly, SRW 99 vs 85 ly and HRS 111 VS 235 LY. USDA raised World 21/22 wheat carryout from 279 mmt to 283. 20/21 was raised from 288 to 292. USDA raised 21/22 Canada stocks 1.4, EU 1.4 and India 1.4. USDA still est Russia crop at 72.5 and lowered Canada to 23.0
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