Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
SOYBEANS
Soybeans ended higher. Higher canola prices helped soyoil which helped soybeans. SU tested initial resistance near 100 day and 13.42. Overnight rains in IA and talk of more rain offered resistance. Some feel US east Midwest soybean ratings could increase and offset low ratings in NW Midwest. Weekly US soybean export sales were only 2 mil bu. Total commit is near 2,274 vs 1,682 last year. China export commit is near 1,313 mil bu with shipments near 1,284. New crop China sales are near 150 mil bu. Global June soybean and soymeal export trade dropped to only 14.6 mmt vs 17.7 ly. Sep-June exports are near 130.5 mmt vs 131.3 last year. WOB goal is a record 180.4 mmt vs 175.1 ly. Sep-June US soybean exports are near 52.3 mmt vs 34.8 ly, Brazil 60.9 vs 72.4. Argentina Sep-June soymeal exports are near 20.4 mmt vs 20.5 ly, Brazil 11.8 vs 12.7 and US 9.4 vs 9.4.
Weekly Winnipeg Canola futures chart
CORN
Corn futures traded lower. Managed funds continued to liquidate out of a record long position going into the July 4 weekend. CU tested 5.20 before trading near 5.29 on the close. CU continues to lose vs CZ on talk commercials have good coverage into the end of this market year and farmer is not the big long. CZ tested 5.07 before ending near 5.17. Some feel that almost 70-75 pct of the US 2021 corn crop is “made”. US 2 week central Midwest forecast suggest normal rains and temps. Some still feel NW Midwest could turn hot and dry late next week and into August. Weekly US corn export sales were only 6 mil bu. Total commit is near 2,744 mil bu vs 1,673 last year. WOB goal is 2,850 vs 1,778 last year. China commit is near 917 mil bu. Shipments are near 692. New crop China sales are near 421 mil bu. Again this week there was talk that China could import 28 mmt of corn in 20/21 vs 26 est in June but US Ag attache lowered the est for 21/22 from 26 mmt to 20. China has already bought 10.7 mmt from US and 7-9 mmt from Ukraine. Trade looks for WOB to est US 2021 corn crop at 15,115 mil bu vs 14,990 in June and a yield of 178.8 vs 179.5 and 176.6 previous record. Trade also est US 21/22 corn carryout near 1,402 vs 1,357 previous and 1,107 this year.
WHEAT
Wheat futures closed mixed. WU closed lower and near 6.15. Range was 6.09-6.20. Lower corn prices and large US SRW crop continues to offer resistance. KWU closed higher and near 5.93. Range was 5.84-5.98. MWU also closed higher and near 8.14. Range was 7.98-8.17. Most could still see MWU trade higher if US/Canada weather remains hot and dry. WU is trying to hold near 6.00. KWU 5.80 and MWU 8.00. Weekly US wheat export sales were only 10 mil bu. Total commit is near 245 vs 275 last year. WOB goal is 900 vs 985 last year. High ocean freight rates continues to reduce World demand. US HRW fob prices are near $277, East EU $235, Russia $235, Baltic $240 and French $241. Some now est US wheat crop near 1,797 mil bu vs 1,826 ly, WW 1,353 VS 1,172, HRW 804 vs 659. SRW 354 vs 354 and HRS 397 vs 586 ly.
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