Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
SOYBEANS
Soybeans traded lower. SU ended near 13.26. Range was 13.18 to 13.45. Some talk of lower US supply offered support. Slow US soybean export demand offered resistance. Trade est weekly US soybean exports sales near 200-750 mt vs 1,763 last week. US 2020/21 soybean export commit is near 2,272 mil bu vs 1,647 last year. WOB goal is 2,280 vs 1,682 last year. Some est exports closer to 2,290. Same group could see total demand up 30-40 mil bu from WOB June guess. This could lower US 20/21 carryout closer to 100. Still, average trade guess is 140. Some are using a US 2021 soybean crop near 4,370 vs WOB 4,405. Average trade guess is 4,394. Today, noon weather maps added rains for the central Midwest next week. Still there is concern about the 20.4 US soybean acres in ND, SD and MN where summer weather could be dry.
CORN
Corn futures traded lower. Noon US Midwest weather maps added rain for central Midwest next week. Our weather guy could see a ridge building late next week across parts of the upper Midwest. Trade est US weekly corn sales near 100-950 mt vs 82 mt last week. There remains concerns that China may be done buying US new crop corn until the fall. US 2020/21 corn export commit is near 2,738 mil bu vs 1,666 last year. WOB goal is 2,850 vs 1,778 last year. Some est exports closer to 2,900. Same group could see total demand up 50-100 mil bu from WOB June guess. This could lower US 20/21 carryout closer to 1,000. Still, average trade guess is 1,088. Conab est Brazil corn crop near 93.4 mmt vs WOB 98.5. Some is the trade is closer to 85 due to persistent dryness and recent frost. Some are using a US 2021 corn crop near 14,875 vs WOB 14,990. Some remain concerned about 18.1 million corn acres in ND,SD and MN where summer weather could be dry. Average trade guess is 15,115. Average guess for US 21/22 corn carryout is 1,402 vs WOB 1,354. Weekly US ethanol production was up 1 pct from last week and up 16 pct from last year. Stocks were down 2 pct from last week and up 2 pct from last year. Margins remain negative. Some look for CU to drop vs CZ due to slow export demand and favorable US east Midwest crop outlook. CZ could also lose to CH21.
WHEAT
Wheat trade was mixed. WU ended down 4 cents and near 6.18. Worries about US/global economic growth as new strain of Covid spreads offered resistance to equities and commodities. KWU managed small gains of 3 cents and ended near 5.88. MWU dropped 3 cents and ended near 8.05. WU also followed lower corn prices. WU has strong resistance near the 200 day moving average near 6.37. KWU resistance is near the gap near 6.04. MWU resistance is near 8.26. Weekly US wheat export sales are est near 200-450 mt vs 226 last week. US 2021/2 wheat export commit is near 235 mil bu vs 263 last year. WOB goal is 900 vs 985 last year. Some are using a US 2021 wheat crop near 1,790 vs WOB 1,898. Trade remains concerned about 1/2 of US and 2/3 of Canada 2021 HRS crop outlook. US 20/21 wheat carryout could be closer to 729 vs WOB 770.
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