Written Commentary
Ag Market View for September 10.24
September 10, 2024
CORN
Prices were down $.01-$.02 in quiet uneventful trade. Dec-24 futures were unable to penetrate yesterday’s high at $4.13 ½, however held support at its 50 day MA. Spreads remain historically weak. US corn area in drought increased 5% LW to 13%. While this is a 4 month high, its well below YA levels at 49%. The EIA reported ethanol production slipped to 1,061 tbd in the week ended Fri. Aug. 30th, down from 1,071 tbd the previous week however up 5% from YA. Brazil’s Ag. Ministry has pegged Aug-24 corn exports at 6.06 mmt, well below YA at 9.36 mmt however up from July at 3.55. US net farm income is forecast to drop $6.5 bil. in 2024 to $140 bil. representing a 4.4% drop. Tomorrow’s weekly export sales are expected to range from 25-55 mil. bu.
SOYBEANS
The soybean complex was mixed with beans up $.02, meal was $2-$3.5 lower, while oil was up 90-100. Spreads were mixed and while above recent lows they remain historically weak. Nov-24 beans made a new 4 week high by $.00 ¼ however wasn’t able to challenge resistance at the 50 day MA at $10.32 ¾. Inside trade for Oct-24 meal with support at its 50 day MA at $314.90. Inside trade for Oct-24 oil with resistance at the 50 day MA of 42.92. Spot board crush margins recovered $.02 to $1.63 with bean oil PV nearly recovering to 40%. Recent heat and dryness across the nation’s midsection has triggered a sharp rise in drought readings for key growing areas. Dry conditions could delay the start of soybean plantings in WC Brazil, extending the window of US soybean sales in the global marketplace. The USDA announced the sale of 190k mt (7 mil. bu.) of soybeans to an unknown buyer and 126k mt (4.6 mil. bu.) to China confirming the rumored sales from earlier this week. US soybean area in drought increased 7% LW to 19%. Brazil’s Ag. Ministry has pegged Aug-24 soybean exports at 8.04 mmt, just below YA at 8.39 mmt and down from the 11.25 mmt shipped in July. Tomorrow’s US weekly export sales are expected to range from 30-70 mil. bu. for beans, 150-600k tons of meal and -5-15k tons of soybean oil.
WHEAT
Prices were mixed with KC and Chicago down $.04-$.06 while MGEX finished $.02 higher. Inside trade for Dec-24 in both Chicago and KC as prices held above their respective 50 day MA’s. MGEX Dec-24 jumped out to a 6 week high closing near session highs. A French farming group estimates their 2024 wheat production will reach nearly 26 mmt, down 26% from last year’s 35.1 mmt crop. Russia’s Ag. Ministry is holding to their 132 mmt grain production est. for 2024. So far 93 mmt has been harvested of which 70.5 mmt has been wheat. Russia reportedly exported a record amount of wheat in Aug-24 at 5.5 mmt while Sept-24 shipments will likely reach between 4.9-5.2 mmt, also a record high. US winter wheat areas in drought expanded 5% LW to 52%, the highest in the past year. Export sales tomorrow are expected to range from 10-20 mil. bu. The USDA will update wheat production at the end of Sept-24.
Charts provided by USDA Charts.
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