Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
SOYBEANS
The soybean complex was mixed with beans up $.03 – $.05, meal $5 – $8 higher, while oil was down 30 – 70. Nov-23 beans violated support at the 50 day MA of $13.56 ½ before recovering. Oct-23 meal has recovered after making a new 2 week low closing back above both the 50 and 100 day MA’s. Oct-23 oil pushed to a new 3 week low. Next support is the Aug-23 low at 59.40. Spot board crush margins slid $.32 this week to $2.51 ½ bu. a 7 week low. Soybean meal product valued gained 1.2% to 56.6%. Best rains over the next week are slated for the southern plains and MI. It’s impact on US corn and soybean production will likely be minimal. The dryer than normal forecast for the central Midwest in the 6–14 day period will accelerating the crops push toward maturity. Export sales at 66 mil. bu. were in line with expectations. There were 45 mil. bu. of undelivered old crop sales carried over to new crop bringing 2023/24 commitments to 586 mil. bu. down 35% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of down 8%. In addition the USDA announced a new sale of 121k tons (4.4 mil. bu.) of soybean to China. Soybean meal sales at 440k tons old and new crop combined. Stats Canada reports canola stocks as of July 31st stood at 1.506 mmt, nearly double YA however below expectations of 1.7 mmt. Our est. for next Tues. USDA report are 2022/23 ending stocks down 15 mil. bu. to 245 mil. 2023 production based on Sept 1 conditions is 4.176 bil. bu. down 29 mil. from the Aug-23 USDA report with an average yield of 50.5 bpa. We’ve got 2023/24 ending stocks at 200 mil., down 45 mil. from the Aug-23 USDA.
CORN
Prices closed $.02 – $.03 lower in very uneventful trade. Dec-23 remains stuck in $4.75 – $5.05 trading range. The FAO Food Price Index fell 2.1% in Aug-23 to its lowest level since April-21. It is now down 24% from its peak in Mch-22. Export sales at 37 mil. bu. were at the high end of expectations. There were 44 mil. bu. of undelivered old crop sales carried over to new crop bringing 2023/24 commitments to 410 mil. bu. down 11% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of up 26%. If production is cut more than expected next Tues. Their current forecast rests at 2.050 bil. bu. Our est. for next Tues. USDA report are 2022/23 ending stocks up 10 mil. bu. to 1.467 bil. 2023 production based on Sept 1 conditions is 14.934 bil. bu. down 177 mil. from the Aug-23 USDA report with an average yield of 173 bpa. We’ve got 2023/24 ending stocks at 2.161 bil., down 41 mil. from the Aug-23 USDA. If ending stocks remain well over 2.1 bil. I’d expect Dec-23 to breakout to the downside of its recent range. $4.50 – $4.60 remains the downside objective unless pulled higher by a soybean rally.
WHEAT
Prices were $.04 – $.08 lower across all 3 classes in 2 sided trade. Chicago Dec-23 made a new contract low in early trade. Both Dec KC and MGEX finished near the midpoint of the weekly range. Ukrainian Pres. Zelensky stated he feels the war is slowing as sanctions on Russia have slowed their weapon supplies. Ukraine also stated they object to any sanctions relief in exchange for reviving the UN Black Sea Grain Initiative. Stats Canada reported all wheat stocks as of Juy 31st were 3.584 mmt, slightly below YA however below expectations of 4.0 mmt. Oat stocks at 1.275 mmt, were slightly above expectations of 1.2 mmt. Barley stocks at .708 mmt were also slightly above expectations. Export sales at 14 mil. bu. were in line with expectations. YTD commitments at 289 mil. are down 21% from YA, vs. the UDA forecast of down 8%. The BAGE expects Argentine wheat production to bounced back to 16.5 mmt in 2023/24, up from 12.2 YA however falls just shy of the USDA forecast of 17.5 mmt. Russian increased their export tax for the period ending Sept. 19th to 4,494 roubles/mt, up from 4,008.
See more market commentary here.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
