Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
CORN
Prices were up $.03 – $.04 as Dec-23 traded to a 2 week high. Next resistance is at the Sept-23 high of $4.90 ¼. A slow moving low pressure system will be exiting the eastern corn belt over the next 24 – 36 hours providing better harvest opportunities by the weekend. Harvest conditions have been much more favorable in the western corn belt this week. Historically Friday’s report has had a bit of a bearish tilt. Since 2000 December corn has closed lower the day of the report 61% of the time. Ethanol production rebounded to 1,009 tbd in the week ended Fri. Sept 22nd, up from 980 tbd the previous week. Production was below the weekly pace needed to reach the USDA corn usage forecast of 5.30 bil. bu. There was 101 mil. bu. of corn used in the production process, or 14.4 mil. bu. per day. 3 weeks into the 2023/24 MY corn usage has reached 318 mil. bu., or 14.45 mbd, an annualized pace of 5.273 bil. bu. Brazil’s corn exports in Sept-23 are expected to reach a record high at 9.6 mmt, up 40% from YA. Since July 1st Ukraine’s corn exports have reached only 2.6 mmt, down 42% from YA. Historically, Friday’s report has had a bit of a bearish tilt. Since 2000 December corn prices have closed lower the day of the report 61% of the time. Export sales tomorrow are expected to range from 20 – 45 mil. bu.
SOYBEANS
The soybean complex was mixed with beans $.01 – $.05 higher, meal was down $3 – $4, while oil was 50 – 70 higher. After surging to double digit gains in early trade, Nov-23 beans pulled back closing with fractional gains while also closing below its 100 day MA at $13.06 ½. As record heat of 100+ degrees F continues to impact much of central Brazil, much above normal rainfall continues across the southern states of Rio Grande Do Sul and Santa Catarina. Increased monsoonal rains are needed across west central Brazil by mid Oct or threaten to delay soybean plantings which will lead to delayed 2nd corn crop seedings next Jan/Feb. No change to the current Argentine drought is seen over the next few weeks. Historically Friday’s report has had a bit of a bearish tilt with November soybeans closing lower 61% of the time since 2000. Brazil’s soybean exports in Sept-23 are expected to reach a record for the month at 6.2 mmt, up 74% from YA. Their meal exports in Sept-23 are expected to reach 2.2 mil. tons, up 25% from YA. Conab reports Brazilian soybean plantings have reached 1.5%, down from 1.7% YA. The best progress so far has been made in Parana at 16%. Historically, Friday’s report has also had a bearish tilt to soybeans with November closing lower 61% of the time since 2000. Export sales tomorrow are expected to range from 20 – 45 mil. bu. for soybeans and 100 – 500k tons for soybean meal.
WHEAT
Prices were lower across all 3 classes with Chicago down $.06 – $.10, while KC and MGEX were $.13 – $.16 lower. Dec-23 MGEX has fallen to a new contract low, while KC Dec-23 slipped to its lowest level in 2 years. Since July 1st Ukraine’s wheat exports have reached 3.16 mmt, still up 12% from YA. Egypt bought 170k mt of wheat with their recent tender. 120k mt was from Romania at $255/mt FOB, $272/mt C&F with 50k mt from Bulgaria at $255/mt FOB, $274/mt C&F. While Ukraine provided the lowest offer for Egypt’s tender at $239/mt, they were not able to secure freight to move the grain. Historically Friday’s report has had a bit of a bullish tilt with December wheat closing higher 55% of the time since 2000. Export sales tomorrow is expected to range from 9 – 18 mil. bu.
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