Ag Market View for Sept 15.23


Prices were down $.03 – $.04 making new lows on the close as demand remains weak.  US corn prices are still above SA supplies thru year end.  Dec-23 held support above $4.73 ½.  The White House today announced Ukrainian Pres. Zelenskiy will meet with Pres. Biden and members  from both parties of Congress while in Washington DC late next week.  Pres. Biden is expected to reaffirm the US commitment to Ukraine’s democracy.  The BAGE forecasts Argentine corn acres will reach 7.3 mil. HA, up from 7.1 YA while plantings have reached 2%.  Ukraine’s grain and oilseed harvest as of Sept 15th has reached 35.2 mmt.  So far 5.8 mmt of barley has been combined, while only 55.8 thousand tons of corn has been thrashed.  Russia raised its export tax on exports to 2,616 roubles/mt, for the period ended Sept. 26th, up from 2,465 the previous period.  Look for Dec-23 corn to challenge $4.50 – $4.60 level before the Oct-23 USDA report.  Strong ethanol margins cannot support corn prices by itself.  Without a weather problem in Brazil, US exports are likely 200 – 300 mil. bu. overstated.


The soybean complex was mostly lower with beans down $.18 – $.20, meal $6 – $8 lower, while oil recovered to close higher.  Nov-23 beans had an outside day down however held support above this week’s low at $13.33 ¾.  Oct-23 oil rebounded sharply following the midday NOPA report showing stocks at a 6 year low.  Oct-23 meal closed below support at its 100 day of $396.50, however held above this week’s low at $392.40.  No export announcements today as US soybeans are at or above SA supplies thru the end of Nov-23.  Moderate rains are impacting the western corn belt today with heavier totals in the Southern plains.  No more than light rains are expected across much of the central and eastern Midwest thru the middle part of next week before a wetter pattern develops the last week of Sept.  Ukraine’s oilseed harvest has reached 5.7 mmt which includes 4 mmt of rapeseed and just over 1 mmt of sunflower seed.  NOPA crush in Aug-23 at only 161.5 mil. bu. was well below the average est. of 168.7 mil. and below the range of estimates.  Soybean oil stocks fell to only 1.25 bil. lbs. well below the average guess of 1.505 bil. and the lowest since Oct-2017.  With the much lower than expected NOPA results, total crush for the 2022/23 MY will likely fall 5 – 7 mil bu below the USDA forecast of 2.220 bil bu.    Spot board crush margins rebounded $.10 today to $2.23 bu. while still down $.60 from last month’s peak, overall they remain historically strong.  Soybean oil product value increased .6% to 44.6%.  Look for oil demand to continue to support crush margins.  Recall July-23 soybean oil usage for biofuels reached 1.2 bil. lbs. annualized at 14.4 bil. lbs. well above the current USDA forecast for 2023/24 at only 12.5 bil. lbs.  Still baffled the USDA didn’t raise their est. this week as production capacity expands moving forward.  Old crop usage was raised only 100 mil. lbs. to 11.8 bil.  Probably 200 – 300 mil. too low. 

Steve Freed, Ag market consultant


Prices are higher across all 3 classes with Chicago and KC up $.08 – $.10 while MGEX was $.04 – $.05 higher.  Prices recovered, likely on short covering ahead of this afternoon’s CFTC report while also adding in war premium.  While there were no additional Ukrainian missile attacks on Russian port infrastructure overnight, markets sense this is likely just a pause before the next round of assaults.  Another vessel has left the Ukrainian port of Odesa following the humanitarian corridor hugging the coastline near Romania and Bulgaria.  Dec-23 Chicago has made a new weekly high, back above $6.00.  Next resistance is the Sept-23 high at $6.15 ½.  Dec-23 KC has made a new weekly high as well, however has held below resistance at $7.50.  Dec-23 MGEX has reached a new monthly high.  Ukrainian wheat harvest has reached 22.2 mmt, up 15% from YA.  India’s Govt claims they have no plans to import bulk amounts of wheat from Russia in order combat rising food inflation, contrary to media reports.  The BAGE reports Argentina’s wheat conditions improved to 24% G/E, up 6% from LW following recent rains.  Taiwan flour mills are seeking to buy just over 93k mt of US milling wheat for Nov/Dec shipment.  Russia raised their wheat export tax to 4,529 roubles/mt in the period ending Sept 26th, up from 4,494 the previous period.

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