The dryer than normal forecast for the central Midwest in the 6–14 day period will accelerate the crop’s push toward maturity. Export sales at 66 mil. bu. were in line with expectations. There were 45 mil. bu. of undelivered old crop sales carried over to new crop bringing 2023/24 commitments to 586 mil. bu. down 35% from last year vs. the USDA forecast of down 8%. USDA could raise their 22/23 soymeal export forecast another 200mt on Tues. Stats Canada reports canola stocks as of July 31st stood at 1.506 mmt, nearly double last year but below expectations of 1.7 mmt. USDA could drop 2022/23 ending stocks 15 mil. bu. to 245 mil. 2023 production based on Sept 1 conditions is 4.176 bil. bu. down 29 mil. from the Aug-23 USDA report with an average yield of 50.5 bpa. USDA could estimate 2023/24 ending stocks at 200 mil., down 45 mil. from the Aug-23 USDA. Nov-23 soybeans could rebound back above $14 as the production losses from this year’s late season heat and dryness become more apparent.
USDA current forecast for 2022/23 carryout is 1,457 mil. bu. ADMIS est. for USDA report is up 10 mil. bu. to 1.467 bil. 2023 production based on Sept 1 conditions is 14.934 bil. bu. down 177 mil. from the August. USDA report with an average yield of 173 bpa. We estimate 2023/24 ending stocks at 2,161 mil, down 41 mil. from USDA Aug-23. If ending stocks remain over 2.1 bil, Dec-23 could breakout to the downside of its recent range. Some feel that USDA estimate of 2023/24 feed use may be 200 mil bu too high, ethanol use could be 100 mil bu too high and exports could be 400 mil bu too high. Early US corn harvest yield are below some early hopes. Still fact USDA may be 700 mil bu too high in demand could limit the upside in futures until after harvest. US Midwest 2 week weather forecast is warm and dry which should speed up harvest. Key in prices could be 2024 South America crops, World corn import demand and managed funds trade.
Chicago Dec-23 has made a new contract lows. Both Dec KC and MGEX finished near the midpoint of the weekly range. Ukrainian Pres. Zelensky stated he feels the war is slowing as sanctions on Russia have slowed their weapon supplies. Ukraine also stated they object to any sanctions relief in exchange for reviving the UN Black Sea Grain Initiative. Stats Canada reported all wheat stocks as of Juy 31st were 3.584 mmt, slightly below last year and below expectations of 4.0 mmt. Oat stocks at 1.275 mmt, were slightly above expectations. Export sales at 14 mil. bu. were in line with expectations. Season to date export commitment is 289 mil and down 21% from last year vs. the UDA forecast of down 8%. The BAGE expects Argentine wheat production to bounced back to 16.5 mmt in 2023/24, up from 12.2 YA however falls just shy of the USDA forecast of 17.5 mmt. Russia continues to offer wheat export at lower prices which limits the upside in futures.
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