Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
SOYBEANS
Soybeans ended higher. Trade will be watching US harvest yields, demand for US 2021 soybean supplies and South America weather for future direction. 13.00 is strong overhead resistance. 12.50 could be key support. End users are suggested to use break in prices to add to 2022 needs. Trade estimates US weekly soybean export sales near 700-1,200 mt vs 903 last week. Trade estimates US Sep 1 soybean stocks near 174 mil bu vs 525 ly. Trade still hearing WCB US soybean harvest yields better than expected. Oct soymeal deliveries could be small. There are 365 Oct soyoil lots registered for delivery.
CORN
Corn futures ended higher. Bears feel that slow demand for US corn exports continues to offer resistance near 5.40-5.50 CZ. Bulls feel talk of lower US final corn yield and potential drop in US 2021/22 corn carryout will continue to support CZ through harvest and could push futures higher post harvest. Some US domestic end user locations are beginning to push basis higher due to slow farmer selling additional bushels above previous sold contracts. Trade estimates US weekly corn export sales near 400-900 mt vs 373 last week. Some estimate China corn import needs to total near 20 mmt. They have bought 10 mmt from US and 4 mmt from Ukraine. This could limit new US purchases unless they want to add to Reserves. Some feel Canada may need to rail 4 mmt of US corn to satisfy demand. Most feel final US corn exports should be closer to 2,600 vs USDA 2,475 and 2,745 last year. Weekly ethanol production was down from last week but above last year. Stocks were near last week but up from last year. Margins remain positive. Trade estimates US Sep 1 corn stocks near 1,155 mil bu vs 1,919 ly.
WHEAT
Wheat futures ended mixed. Talk of lower global wheat supply for exports including Canada, Russia and EU offers support. Thursday USDA estimate of US Sep 1 wheat stocks and final US 2021 wheat crop could be supportive. Higher US Dollar and rising end users cost of production and uncertain US food demand offers resistance. Dru areas of US south plains will see needed rains. US north plains, PNW, Canada prairies, east EU and most of the Black Sea remains dry. La Nina could suggest drier US south Plains and SRW crop areas in 2022. Trade estimates US weekly wheat export sales near 250-550 mt vs 356 last week. Trade estimates US Sep 1 wheat stocks near 1,852 mil bu vs 2,158 ly. Wheat crop 1,680 mil bu vs 1,697 in Sep.
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