Ag Market View for Sep 28


Lack of new US soybean sales to China, weak energy and equity markets and concern over increase US farmer selling weighed on prices near key resistance. Some also feel US shutdown, higher taxes and higher food and energy prices could also slow US economic growth. Weekly US soybean crop ratings remain unchanged from last week but below last year. Some still think US soybean yield could drop to 48-50 versus USDA 50.6. 16 pct of the US soybean crop is harvested and some report US farmer could be a good seller of extra bushels. Trade estimates US Sep 1 soybean stocks near 174 mil bu vs 525 last year. Range of guesses are from 145 to 202


Corn futures traded lower. Weak financial markets and a turn lower in energy prices triggered long liquidation near key resistance. Trade may be disappointed in fact today there were no new US corn to China. USDA did announce 150 mt of US corn to Mexico. There appears to be little new news to attract new buying near session highs. Higher US Dollar and lower commodity prices may also be liquidating new longs in corn. Weekly US corn crop ratings remain unchanged from last week but below last year. This continues to raise strong debate over final US corn yield. Some still think US corn yield could drop to 172-174 versus USDA 176.3.18 pct of the US corn crop is harvested and some report US farmer is still a reluctant seller of extra bushels. Trade estimates US Sep 1 corn stocks near 1,155 mil bu vs 1,919 last year. Range of guesses are from 998 to 1,152


Wheat futures traded lower. Higher US Dollar, rains across US south plains and slow demand for US wheat exports weighed on prices. WZ ended near 7.06. Range was 7.06-7.26. KWZ ended near 7.08. Range 7.03-7.25. MWZ ended near 9.07. Range was 9.03-9.24. USDA NASS estimated US winter wheat planting near 34 pct done versus 32 average. KS is 27, OK 28, OH is 5, WA 67. Rains are forecasted later this week. Brazil banned GMO wheat imports. This could reduce 6-7 mmt they import from Argentina. Matif new crop wheat futures making new highs on concern acres and production could be down due to seed problems and higher input cost including fertilizer. Trade estimates US Sep 1 wheat stocks near 1,852 mil bu vs 2,158 last year. Range of guesses are from 1,775 to 1,998.

Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.

ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.                  

A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.

© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.  Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM.  The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.

Latest News & Market Commentary

Explore the latest edition of The Ghost in the Machine

Explore Now