Written Commentary
Commodities Overview October 2025 Edition
October 24, 2025
CORN
Prices were $.03-$.05 lower closing near session lows. Prices were little changed for the week while spreads backed off to close out the week. Inside trade for Dec-25 futures however did give up almost all of yesterday’s gain. Next resistance is the September high at $4.31 ¼ with support at the 100 day MA at $4.20 ½. Speculative traders bought roughly 12k contracts yesterday which we suspect cut the MM short position to 90k contracts. O.I. however jumped 15k contracts, suggesting fresh money coming into the market from the long side, whether it be speculative or end users locking in future needs. Again no CFTC data this afternoon with the partial US Govt. shutdown. Late yesterday the BAGE estimated Argentine corn plantings advancing 4% in the past week to 34%. Seedings are running about a week quickly than YA. The cattle inventory report is also delayed however traders est. COF as of Oct. 1st at 98% of YA levels with placements in Sept at 91% and marketing at 96%. Since the end of Sept-25 Dec. corn is up $.07 ¾ bu. In the past 15 years pretty much a coin flip on Dec corn performance in the Oct-Nov timeframe with 6 years prices being high, down 8 years while unchanged once.
SOYBEANS
Prices were mostly lower across the complex with beans down $.01-$.03, meal is up $2-$4 while oil has backed up 50-60 points. Spreads weakened across the complex. Nov-25 beans did scratch out a fresh 5-week high overnight before pulling back. Next resistance is at the Sept. high at $10.53. New 2 month high for Dec-25 meal with next resistance at the August high near $300 ton. Meal has closed higher 9 consecutive sessions with speculative traders being net buyers every day which still leaves MM’s short roughly 95k contracts. Inside trade for Dec-25 oil as it consolidates between $.50 lb. and its 50 day MA, currently 51.39. With no confirmation of yesterday’s rumored Chinese interest in US soybeans speculative traders turned moderate sellers today. Talks between USTR Greer and Treasury Sec. Bessent with Chinese trade delegates this weekend in Malaysia could drive price volatility Sunday night. Trump continues to talk up his relationship with Pres. Xi, we’ll see if he and his administration can delivery for the US farmer. Without a trade deal and Chinese buying combined with no weather problem in SA look for spot prices to quickly pull back into the $9.80-$10 range in November. Since the end of Sept-25, January beans have moved up $.40 bu. In the previous 15 years in the Oct thru Nov. timeframe prices have been lower 9 times while higher 6 times.
WHEAT
Prices closed the session mixed while holding within a couple cents of unchanged across all 3 classes. Fresh news was limited as futures were not able to hold early strength. Resistance for Dec-25 CGO is the 50 day MA at $5.17 ½, for Dec-25 KC it’s $5.06, for MIAX its $5.67 ¾. All 3 classes have been below the technical indicator since June or July. Argentine wheat harvest is underway with 5% of the crop gathered so far according to the BAGE. They kept their production forecast unchanged at 22 mmt, below the Rosario Grain Exchange forecast of 23 mmt, however well above the USDA est. from Sept at 19.5 mmt. Speculative traders bought roughly 4k contracts of CGO wheat yesterday, cutting their net short position to 93K contract. O.I. for both CGO and KC fell just over 2k contracts suggesting short cover. Russia’s Ag. Ministry increased their wheat export tax 69% to 167.7 rouble/mt for the period ending Nov. 6th, still quite low by historical standards.
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