Written Commentary
Ag Market View for Dec 13.24
December 13, 2024
SOYBEANS
Soybeans and soyoil traded lower. Higher US energy supplies weighed on Crude oil futures which weighed on soyoil which weighed on soybeans. Soybean trade continues to find negative news from higher US 2020 supply, talk of higher US 2021 crop and slow China buying US soybeans. There was talk today that China may have bought a few US PNW soybean cargoes today and could add to coverage post Holiday. Some estimate China 2021/22 soybean imports are a record 103 mmt vs 98 last year. US 30 mmt vs 35 ly, Brazil 65 vs 57, Argentina 5 vs 3. Key could be final Brazil 2022 soybean crop. Brazil est today their 2022 soybean crop near 143 mmt vs 136 last year. Central Brazil is dry but could see better rains soon. Argentina is dry and could be dry for next 10 days. Argentina farmer has stopped selling with Peso making new lows. Malaysian palmoil futures made new highs. Matif and Canada rapeseed futures also made new highs.
CORN
Corn futures ended lower. Higher US energy supply weighed in Crude prices which weighed on corn prices. Both Crude and corn tested key resistance on talk of higher demand. Most still feel over next few months, both energy and corn demand could exceed free supply which could send prices higher. US corn basis is firming where harvest is advanced the most with new farmer selling less than what is needed to fill the pipeline. Brazil estimated 2022 corn crop near 115 mmt vs USDA 118 and 86 last year. Central Brazil is dry but rain are forecast soon. Long term, it is South Brazil that is dry during La Nina years. Argentina is dry and could be dry over next 10 days. Some have heard that Argentina may soon ban corn exports. Argentina Peso is making new lows which also slows farmer selling. EU corn prices have also rallied on late harvest and below normal imports. Ukraine harvest is also slow. US China Ag Attache raised 20/21 corn imports to 30 mmt vs 26 but lowered 21/22 to only 20 mmt from 26. Some though feel China could increase imports to help hog producers profits. China hog prices are lower and corn prices are near $10.00. Weekly US ethanol production was up 7 pct from last week as crushers took advantage of higher margins. Stocks were down 1 pct from last week and up 1 pct from last year. Weekly US export sales are estimated near 350-800 mt vs 370 last week.
WHEAT
Wheat futures ended higher. There remains concern that free milling wheat export supply may decline. Some est that World exports stocks to use ratio may be record low. Matif wheat futures traded higher and is near key resistance. Today, Egypt bought Russia and Romania wheat. Prices were near 6 year highs. Russia may be trying of increase exports before increase export tax and start a quota in January. Russia Ag Minister said that wheat exports will be near 37.5 mmt vs 31.5 reported in the press. There was also talk that Argentina may soon ban wheat exports. Last week Argentina was aggressive with wheat export licenses. Last time they did this was in 2020 when exports were banned. Most look for USDA to lower US, Canada, EUand Russia supplies in their October 12 report. Weekly US wheat export sales are est near 200-500 mt vs 290 last week. US south plains fall, winter and spring 2022 weather forecast suggest drier than normal rains. Some feel drop in global stocks and potential drop in US 2022 supply could send WZ and KWZ over 8.00.
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