Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
CORN
Prices were down $.03 – $.05 today as Dec-23 failed in its attempt to trade above $5 for the first time in nearly 2 months. The 50 day MA at $4.87 ½ will now serve as support. Open interest in corn fell nearly 8k contracts yesterday, suggesting it was a short covering rebound. It should be a good harvest weekend with much of the Midwest remaining dry thru the middle part of next week. Heavy rains are forecast for much of the nation’s midsection by the end of next week. The BAGE estimates Argentina’s corn plantings advanced 7% in the past week to 14%. They maintain their acreage forecast at 7.3 mil. HA, up from 6.7 mil. HA YA. Ukraine has so far harvested 32.3 mmt of grain, up 22% from this date YA. Corn harvest at 2.6 mmt compares to only 400k tons YA. Ukraine’s grain exports since July 1st at only 6.9 mmt are down 28% from YA.
SOYBEANS
The soybean complex was mostly lower with soybeans down $.09 – $.15 after making a new weekly high overnight, meal was $4 – $6 lower, while oil was 10 – 25 higher. Open interest was slightly higher across the board yesterday in the soybean complex. Spreads are widening a bit with today being the first day of the Goldman roll. Heavy rains in Southern Brazil will delay planting efforts while also threatening the quality of their wheat crop. World Weather is suggesting WC areas of Brazil with see better prospects for rain by the middle part of next week. Forecasts for Argentina are also trending a bit wetter in week 2 of the outlook. Ukraine’s oilseed harvest has reached 14.4 mmt, with 7.3 mmt being sunflower seed and 4 mmt of rapeseed.
WHEAT
Prices were lower across all 3 classes today with Chicago and MGEX down $.08 – $.11, while KC was $.14 – $.17 lower. Open interest with yesterday’s price surge was down just over 6k contracts in Chicago while KC was slightly higher. Overnight Russia launched additional missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian ports in Odesa and Mykolaiv damaging a grain silo while destroying a number of grain trucks. Ukraine’s wheat harvest has so far reached 22.2 mmt, nearly equal to the USDA production forecast of 22.5 mmt. Russia states they will begin delivering grain to African countries over the next 4 – 6 weeks once all the documents are finalized. They also raised their export tax on wheat to 5,224 roubles/mt from 4,565 roubles. Russia’s Ag. Ministry estimates their grain harvest as of Oct. 5th has reached 133.5 mmt, down from 148 mmt at this point YA. Of this they est wheat volume at 93.8 mmt. The USDA forecast for Russian wheat production is only 85 mmt. Another year that Russian wheat production est. vary greatly. Australia finished the month of Sept. with record low rainfall and near record high temperatures.
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