Ag Market View for Oct 4.23
Prices were steady to $.02 lower with a slight tilt toward bear spreading. $4.90 continues to put a lid on Dec-23 rally attempts. Next resistance is $4.99 ½ followed by the 100 day MA at $5.11 ½. Summerlike warmth over much of the nation’s midsection will end over the next 24-36 hours. Much of the Western corn belt will be dry over the next 7 days following healthy rains in the past 24 hours that will likely stall harvest progress for a few days. Scattered rains, with a few heavier pockets, will likely bring only brief harvest delays to the central and eastern corn belt over the next few days. The USDA announced the sale of 197k tons (8 mil. bu.) of corn to Mexico. Ag. commodities exported from Ukraine since July 1st have reached 6.82 mmt, down 23% from YA. Corn exports account for 2.7 mmt. The EIA reported ethanol production held steady last week at 1,009 tbd. Corn usage reached 101 mil. bu., slightly below the pace needed to reach the USDA forecast of 5.30 bil. bu. Ethanol stocks fell slightly to 21.9 mil. barrels slightly above YA levels. Gasoline demand last week plunged to just over 8 mil. bpd, down 7% from the previous week, and down 15% from same week YA. Old crop usage likely to be lowered 16 mil. bu. to 5.179 bil. Brazil’s corn exports in Oct-23 are expected to reach 8.9 mmt vs. 6.2 mmt in Oct-22.
The soybean complex was mostly lower in choppy trade. Beans were within $.02 of unchanged with some modest bull spreading noted. Meal was mostly steady except for spot Oct which was up $5. Oil made new lows late, closing 85 – 115 lower, drawing negative sentiment from sharply lower energy prices. Dec-23 was able to hold support above this week’s low at 55.56. Speculative traders were noted sellers in the soybean oil today. No significant resistance for Nov-23 soybeans until the 100 day MA at $13.07 ½. Heavy rains in Rio Grande do Sol and Santa Catarina in Southern Brazil area expected to continue over the next week. Rains in WC areas of Mato Grosso and MGDS are expected to be much more sporadic. Light rains have fallen in key growing areas of Argentina, however much more is needed to relieve the severe drought conditions. There were no export announcements today. Spot board crush margins were steady at $1.80 bu. down $1 bu. from the late summer high. Soybean meal gained nearly 1% in product value to 55.8%. Conab estimates Brazilian soybean plantings have reached 4.1% of the 45.3 mil. HA as of Oct. 1st, vs. 4.6% planted YA. Brazilian soybean exports in Oct-23 are expected to reach 6.7 mmt, a record high for the month and well above the 3.6 mmt from Oct-22. Export sales tomorrow are expected to range from 15 – 35 mil. for soybeans, 150 – 500k tons soybean meal, and (8) – 10k tons soybean oil.
Prices were lower across all 3 classes today with Chicago down $.08 – $.10, while MGEX and KC were off $.10 – $.16. So far all 3 classes have been able to hold above their recent lows. Rains yesterday and today should improve wheat prospects in New South Wales however little relief is seen for drought conditions in Western Australia. Ukraine claims another dozen vessels are prepared to use the “humanitarian corridor” in order to access Ukrainian ports for their exports. Since July-23 Ukraine has exported 3.4 mmt of wheat. Russia has reported exported a record 5.8 mmt in Sept-23 alone, while exporting 15.3 mmt July thru Sept. Thailand reported bought 60k mt of Black Sea origin wheat for 265.80/mt CF for Jan-24 shipment. Export sales tomorrow are expected to range from 10 – 22 mil. bu.
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