Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
SOYBEANS
Month end. For the month, SX was down 14 cents, SMZ up 4.00 and BOZ was up 3 cents. SX deliveries were 1,318 and higher than expected. This could suggest exporters concern about US soybean export pace especially to China. US soybean export commit is near 1,120 mil bu or down 35 pct from last year. Some in the trade will turn their attention to Nov 9 USDA report. Some feel USDA NASS could raise their estimate of US soybeans yield. USDA WOB could lower US soybean exports as much as 60 mil bu. This could suggest a carryout closer to 400 mil bu. This could be negative to prices back below 12.00 SF. USDA did announce 132 mt US soybeans to unknown and 222 mt previous sales to unknown. Need a South America weather problem to push SF over 12.50. Matif rapeseed edged lower but Canada canola futures traded to new highs. Dalian soybean, soyoil and rapeoil futures traded higher. Soybean open interest dropped 150,000 contracts due to option expiration.
CORN
Corn futures ended higher. CZ ended over 5.65. OZ was higher and made new highs on concern about lower Canada supplies. This week corn futures traded higher following higher NH3 prices. One C IL farmer paid 1,320 this week for NH3 versus 880 2 weeks ago and 504 last year. This also raised concern that US farmers may plant less corn acres in 2022 due to higher cost. This also could be true in Brazil and EU. Finally, there are some who feel USDA WOB could raised corn demand on Nov 9 report. Some fear though they may keep exports unchanged and raise ethanol use only 50 mil bu. This and if USDA NASS raise US corn yield 1-2 bpa could suggest USDA WOB could keep US carryout near 1,500, This could be negative futures. Still, some feel final demand could be up 500-600 mil bu and carryout could eventually drop to 1,000 mil bu which should be bullish futures. US corn export commit is near 1,175 mil bu or down 3 oct from last year. USDA is forecasting a 9 pct drop. USDA did announce today 279 mt US corn to Mexico. Argentina said that 28 pct of their corn crop is planted and is rated 73 pct G/E, up 8 pct from last week and vs 36 last year. Matif corn future edged lower. Farmers were told there is a gas shortage to dry corn. EU corn imports are down and causing domestic corn prices to trend higher.
WHEAT
Wheat futures ended mixed. WZ ended unchanged and near 7.72. Range was 7.63-7.80. KWZ ended lower and near 7.85. Range was 7.78-7.94. Some feel Chicago and KC futures may be overbought and due for a correction into. USDA Nov 9 report. USDA could lower US wheat exports. US export commit is near 463 mil bu vs 594 last year. US HRW export prices are competitive after Jan 1. World wheat trade through October is up 10 pct vs USDA est of unchanged. Russia Ah Minister raised their estimate of the wheat crop. Russia export tax is near $70. This is below some est as higher as $90. Still, Russia domestic wheat prices are higher than export. This limits farmer selling for export and could slow their exports. This and slower EU exports could support higher World and US wheat prices. Argentina raised their wheat crop to 19.8 mmt. Crop was rated 47 pct G/E, up 3 from last week and versus 14 last year. 7 pct of the crop is harvested vs 4 average.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
