Ag Market View for Oct 17.22
14.00 remains strong resistance for SX. US Jan soybean crush margin made new highs. NOPA September soybean crush was 158 mil bu vs vs 154 last year and 165 in August. Some feel crush dropped from analyst guess due to maintenance and repair downtime. Sep soyoil stocks were 1,459 mil pounds vs 1,684 ly and 1,565 last month. Trade est US soybean harvest near 60 pct vs 44 last week. Talk of higher South America 2023 crops and lower South America soybean export prices also offers resistance. Key will be South America weather and China demand for US soybeans. This weekend, China pledged reunifications of Taiwan and improved economy. There were no specific plans to help the economy, increase jobs of help the property sector.
Weekly US corn exports were only 17 mil bu. Exports are near 129 mil bu vs 164 ly. Matif corn began the week lower. The risk of an early end to the Ukraine corridor is more important for corn than wheat. With Brazil already shipping corn to China a halt to the corridor would be of significant importance for EU. Another round of kamikaze drones on Ukraine cities the appetite of owners and insurers may not have got any better. Trade est US corn harvest near 45 pct vs 31 last week. Talk of higher South America 2023 crops and lower Brazil and Ukraine export prices also offers resistance. Key will be South America weather and China demand for US soybeans. This weekend, China pledged reunifications of Taiwan and improved economy. There were no specific plans to help the economy, increase jobs of help the property sector. Demand bears feel final US exports could be closer to 2,000 mil bu and carryout 1,300 mil bu vs USDA 1,172. Higher US 2023 corn acres, trend yield and similar total demand could increase US 2023/24 carryout to 1,900. CZ23 resistance near 6.37. CZ23 support 6.22 then 6.00.
Wheat futures ended mixed. WZ was near 8.61. KWZ was near 9.51. MWZ was near 9.55. Weekly US wheat exports were only 8 mil bu. Export are near 344 mil bu vs 343 ly. Key will be Russia export pace and World 2023 global weather. Matif wheat ended lower on renewed optimism over the export corridor. Turkey announced another 495 mt tender on Friday, Less than 30% of the Ukrainian winter grains were sown in the optimal window. Russian plantings are also the slowest in 8 years and the export tax rises by around $16 this week. India will allow the export of wheat flour, but only if produced from imported Australia is too wet. US south plains and Argentina are too dry. US Winter wheat planting is near 68 pct vs 55 last week.
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