Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
SOYBEANS
Soybeans ended sharply lower after the USDA increased US 2021 crop, 2021/22 end stocks and World end stocks. SX traded below 12.00 support. USDA also raised US crush 10 mil bu.US exports were left at 2,090 mil bu. USDA also raised soyoil production 125 mil lbs, Higher carryin increased 2021/22 carryout from 1,478 mil lbs to 1,798. USDA increased US soymeal production 250 tsts and domestic use 300 tsts. USDA now est US average soybean price at 12.35 vs 12.90 in Sep and 10.80 last year. Weekly US soybean exports were 59 mil bu. Season to date exports are near 126 mil bu vs 351 last year. US soybean harvest is estimated near 50 pct vs 34 last week. USDA raised World soybean stocks to 104.5 mmt vs 98.9. USDA raised US to 8.7 mmt vs 5.0. Brazil soybean crop is estimated at 144.0 mmt vs 137.0 Last year. Argentina soybean crop is estimated at 51 mmt vs 52 previous and 46.2 last year. USDA estimated China soybean imports at 101 mt vs 99 this year. There was talk earlier today that due to lower sow inventory and crushers downtime final China soybean imports could drop below 100 mmt. USDA did estimate World soymeal trade a record 70.4 mmt; Argentina 29.3, Brazil 17.0, US 12.9. World domestic soymeal use was left at a record 253 mmt vs 245 last year.
CORN
Corn futures traded lower. CZ ended 9 cents lower and at 5.23. USDA estimated US 2021 corn crop at 15,019 mil bu vs 14,996 previous. USDA raised yields in MN, IA and NE. USDA lowered yields in MO, IL, IN, MI and OH. USDA raised 2021/22 carryin 49 mil bu to 1,236. Total supply is 16,280 mil bu vs 16,055 last year. USDA dropped US feed use 50 mil bu to 5,650 and vs 5,597 last year. USDA kept ethanol use at 5,200 vs 5,032 last year. USDA raised exports 50 mil to 2,500 vs 2,753 last year. Some could see final exports closer to 2,600. Weekly US corn exports were at 29 mil bu. Season to date exports are 116 mil bu vs 180 last year. Trade estimates that 42 pct of the US corn crop is harvested vs 29 last week. USDA raised World corn end stocks to 301.7 mmt vs 297.6 previous and 290 last year. USDA raised US stocks 2.4 mmt and China 2.0 mmt. China 2020/21 imports were raised 2 mmt to 28. USDA left China 2021/22 corn imports at 26.0 mmt. Mexico imports were est at 17 mmt vs 16.5 last year. Japan 15.6 vs 15.4 last year. Ukraine exports were est near 31.5 mmt vs 23.8 last year. Brazil crop 118 mmt vs 86 last year, exports at 43 mmt vs 20 ly. .Brazil Oct- Mar corn exports were 4-5 less than USDA estimate. Argentina crop was estimated at 53 mmt vs 50 ly, exports 38 vs 37.5 last year. Argentina March-Sep corn exports were near 25 6 mmt with export licenses at 38 mmt. Brazil is forecast to see good rains over the next 2 weeks. Argentina is dry this week but could see showers next week. Ukraine is dry but both Ukraine and Russia could see rains next week.
WHEAT
Wheat futures ended higher. As expected US lowered US supply and World wheat end stocks. WZ ended near 7.35. KWZ ended near 7.41. MWZ ended near 9.53. There may have been some increase in long wheat and short corn and short soybean spreads. Some feel that wheat futures may be overbought. The only bright spot to the bulls were USDA wheat numbers. USDA est US wheat crop at 1,646 mil bu and carryout near 580 vs 615 in Sep. HRW carryout 311 vs 347 in Sep and 428 ly,. SRW 94 vs 99 and 85 ly and HRS 113 vs 111 and 235 ly. USDA dropped wheat feeding to 135 mil bu vs 160 and imports to 125 vs 135. US exports are still estimated at 875 mil bu vs 992 ly. USDA also lowered World wheat end stocks to 277 mt from 283. Weekly US wheat exports were 16 mil bu. Season to date exports are 337 mil bu vs 383 last year. Trade estimate US 2022 winter wheat plantings at 61 pct vs 47 last week. USDA estimates World wheat trade near 199 mmt vs 201 last year. EU is 35.5 vs 29.7 last year, Russia 35 mmt vs 38.5 last year. Ukraine 23.5 vs 16.8 ly, Canada 15 vs 26 ly, Australia 23.5 vs 24 ly and US 23.8 vs 27 last year. US end stocks 15.8 mmt vs 23 ly, China 141 mmt vs 144 ly. Russia 9 mmt vs 12 ly.
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