Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
SOYBEANS
Soybeans ended slightly higher. Soybeans has found some support from short covering before Wed USDA report. Weekly US soybean exports were 35 mil bu vs 64 last year. Season to date exports are 101 mil bu vs 137 last year. USDA goal is 2,085 mil bu. Some look for final exports to be closer to 1,980. Market also had to value the potential of higher 2023 South America crops and higher US 2023 crop. Trade estimates US soybean harvest near 41 pct. Some feel yields is east Midwest are above expectations. SX has been in a 13.50-14.00 range since Oct 1 on increase in open interest. All moving averages are near 14.12-14.34. SMZ dropped from 443 on Sep 22 to a low near 391. Soymeal supply should increase with new crop supply. BOZ has been in a range between 62 and 66 since early Sep.
CORN
Corn futures ended lower. Corn found new selling after lower US weekly exports and some fund selling before USDA report. Weekly US corn exports were only 18 mil bu vs 33 last year. Season to date exports are 111 mil bu vs 122 last year. USDA goal is 2,275 mil bu. Some look for final exports to be closer to 2,000. Market also has to value the potential of higher 2023 South America crops and higher US 2023 crop. Trade estimates US corn harvest near 34 pct. Some feel yields is east Midwest are near to below expectations. CZ tested 7.00. Low US river water level is reducing grain movement to the gulf. Threat of a US railroad strike could also slow grain movement from farm to table. CZ has rallied from a low on July 22 near 5.61 to 7.00. Moving averages support is 6.80 then 6.58 then 6.50. Trade estimates World corn end stocks near 301.4 mmt vs 304.5 estimated in September with a range of 280.3-311.0. Trade estimates US corn yield near 171.8 vs 172.5 in September with a range of 170.1 to 173.9. Changes in yield could continue in November. 10 of last 20 years November corn yield has been down 1 pct the other 10 years were up 1 pct.
WHEAT
US wheat futures were sharply lower. Market remains volatile given uncertain US weather and Black Sea exports. Weekly US wheat exports were 22 mil bu versus 16 last year. Season to date exports are 335 mil bu vs 357 last year. USDA goal is 825 mil bu. Some look for final exports to be closer to 790. Market also has to value the potential of higher Russia and Australia crops and lower US wheat demand. Matif wheat futures gave back exactly half of Monday’s gains with 4 possible explanations offered; simple profit taking from yesterday’s spike, following Chicago’s lead was another but with the additional clarification that Chicago was down on newswire reports that Russia might not impose an export quota this year. A 4th explanation was Algeria had bought limited quantities of wheat at $382-384 such a price would exclude French and EU wheat in favor of Russian/Black Sea. WZ has rallied from a Aug 18 low near 7.47 to 9.50. Trade estimates World wheat end stocks near 267.5 mmt vs 268.5 estimated in September with a range of 262.6-268.5.
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