Written Commentary
Ag Market View for Jan 14.25
January 14, 2025
WHEAT
Prices are lower across all 3 classes at midday with Chicago and KC down $.12 – $.15, while MGEX is $.06 – $.09 lower. Despite the lower trade, prices are holding above recent lows. Still too much rain across Southern Brazil will lead to reduced wheat production and grain quality. Export inspections at 9.7 mil. bu. (originally reported as 14.5 mil.) were below expectations. YTD inspections are down 30% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of down 8%. Conab est. Brazil’s wheat production for 23/24 at 10.46 mmt, slightly above the USDA’s 10.3 mmt forecast. Wire services are reporting Egypt’s GASC bought 480k tons of Russian wheat for $265/mt FOB. SovEcon reports that they expect Russian wheat exports will reach 3.9 – 4.4 mmt in Oct-23, down from 4.5 mmt in Oct-22, which if realized would be the first time being below YA figures. EU soft wheat exports as of Oct. 8th have reached 8.13 mmt, down 23% from YA.
SOYBEANS
The soybean complex was mixed with beans closing $.02 – $.07 higher with bull spreading noted, meal was $2 – $3 higher, while oil was down 40 – 70. Nov-23 soybeans made a new 4 month low overnight before recovering. Next support is the 62% Fibonacci retracement at $12.45 ½. Dec-23 bean oil also fell to a fresh 4 month low. Prospects for better rainfall coverage in Argentina and WC Brazil appear to be on the rise the 2nd half of Oct. The Malaysian Palm Oil Board reported end of Sept-23 stocks rose nearly 10% to 2.31 mmt, slightly below expectations. Sept. production rose 4.3%, also just below expectations. Export inspections were initially reported at 60 mil. bu. however a reporting error from the PNW brought the correct figure down to 38 mil. bu., still above expectations and a MY high. YTD inspections at 111 mil. bu. are up 8% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of down 10%. Nearly 30 mil. bu. were destined for China. Conab estimates Brazil’s 2023/24 bean production at a record 162 mmt, just below the USDA forecast of 163 mmt. EU 23/24 soybean imports at 3 mmt as of Oct. 8th are down 4% from YA. Meal imports are off just over 2%.
CORN
Prices were down $.02 – $.03 as Dec-23 hovered near its 50 day MA at $4.86 for much of today’s session closing just below the support level. US harvest progress should remain favorable for another 24-48 hours before heavy rains spread over the northern half of the Midwest thru the upcoming weekend. Cumulative rainfall of 1.50-3.0”+ will be common causing harvest delays. Export inspections at 22 mil. bu. were weak. YTD inspections at 128 mil. bu. are up 14% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of up 23%. Conab estimates Brazil’s 2023/24 corn production at 119.4 mmt, well below the USDA forecast of 129 mmt. Safras & Mercado est. Brazil’s 1st corn crop plantings have reached 51%, ahead of 45% from YA and 5-year Ave. of 40%. EU corn 2023/24 corn imports as of Oct. 8th have reached 4.69 mmt, down 40% from YA.
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