Ag Market View for Nov 9.23


The soybean complex was mixed with beans down $.16 – $.22, meal was steady to down $5, while oil was up 30 – 50.  Brazil’s forecast remains threatening for the next week to 10 days with extreme heat and near complete dryness across northern 2/3rd’s of the country’s growing areas.  Conditions in the south remain very wet.  The extended forecasts are consistent in calling for better rains in the dry areas the last week to 10 days of November which is building confidence.  Argentina remains mostly favorable with a good mix of sun and rain thru the middle of Nov.  US production was increased 25 mil. bu. to 4.129 bil. vs. expectations for no change.  The average US yield rose to 49.9 from 49.6 bpa.  There was virtually no change to the usage side of the equation resulting in ending stocks increasing to 245 mil. bu. 23 mil. above expectations.  As expected old crop soybean oil usage for biofuel production rose 300 mil. lbs. to 12.40 bil. lbs.  Other domestic oil uses were cut 186 mil. lbs. to lower stocks to just over 1.6 bil. a 9 year low.  There were also no changes to the USDA usage forecast for soybean products.  World stocks for 2023/24 are forecast to rise to 114.5 mmt up from 100.3 YA, in line with expectations.  There were no changed to new crop production in South America, however last year’s record Brazilian crop was raised another 2 mmt to 158 mmt.  Chinese imports for 2023/24 were left unchanged at 100 mmt, while imports for 22/23 were cut 1 mmt to 101 mmt.  The BAGE estimates soybean plantings have reached 6%.     

Gold bull & bear


Prices were $.06 – $.08 lower as Dec-23 closed at its lowest level in just over 2 years.  No major threats to the remaining US harvest.  US production was raised 170 mil. bu. to a record 15.234 bil. roughly 150 mil. above expectations.  The average US yield was raised nearly 2 bpa to 174.9 bpa.  Most of the production increase was offset by higher demand as feed usage was raised 50 mil., usage for ethanol up 25 mil., while exports were raised 50 mil.  Ending stocks are now projected at 2.156 bil. 25 mil. above the Ave. estimate and the highest in 5 years.  The US  average farm price was cut $.10 to $4.85 bu.  World stocks for 2023/24 were increased 2.6 mmt to 315 mmt, above expectations of 312 mmt.  There were no changes to the SA production forecasts while Russia’s crop was increased 1.4 mmt, while Ukraine’s was increased 1.5 mmt.  Exports from these Black Sea nations was increased a total of 1.6 mmt.  There were no changes to China’s production or export forecasts.  After the close the BAGE reported the Argentine plantings had reached 25%, while 24% of the crop was rated G/E, up from 20% last week.  10% of the crop was rated as poor, down from 13% LW.  If widespread rain does fall across the dry areas of Brazil by Thanksgiving I suspect Dec-23 will challenge $4.50 support before month end.     


Prices are down $.01 – $.02 in MGEX, KC was $.06 – $.08 lower, while Chicago was down  $.10 – $12.  Ukraine’s Deputy Prime Minister maintains the “Humanitarian Corridor” remains open despite yesterday’s Russian missile strike on a Liberian vessel near the port of Odessa that killed 1 and injured 4.  They also state another 6 vessels have left Odessa area ports loaded with just over 230k mt of ag. products.  US stocks rose 14 mil. bu. to 684 mil. vs. expectations of no change.  Imports rose 10 mil. to 145 mil. while food usage was cut 4 mil. bu.  By class changes saw SRW +11 mil., HRS +5 mil, HRW + 1mil., and durum -3 mil.  The Ave. US Farm price fell $.10 to $7.20 bu.  2023/24 global stocks were steady at just under 259 mmt, slightly above expectations.  Noted global production changes were Russia up 5 mmt, Argentina down 1.5 mmt, Brazil down .4 mmt, India down 3 mmt, and Kazakhstan down 1 mmt.  Argentina’s exports were cut 1.5 mmt while Ukraine’s rose 1 mmt.  No change to Russia’s export forecast of 50 mmt, still the global leader, however domestic usage rose 2 mmt, partially absorbing their higher production.  The BAGE reports Argentine’s harvest has reached 14%. 

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