Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
CORN
Prices were down $.07 – $.09 today as corn struggled with sharply lower energy values. Dec-23 corn managed to hold support at last week’s low at $4.68, which is also ¼ cent above the Sept-23 low. No export announcements today. US harvest progress advanced 10% to 81% complete, behind the 85% pace from YA, however ahead of the 5-year Ave. of 77%. Weather forecasts suggest no major delays expected with the remaining harvest. As markets brace for Thursday’s USDA production and WASDE updates expectations are for very little change in corn, soybean, or wheat balance sheets. Dr. Michael Cordonnier left his SA production estimates unchanged with Brazil at 123 mmt and Argentina at 52 mmt. The US attache in Brazil lowered their corn production forecast 5 mmt to 130 mmt, still above the official USDA est. of 129 mmt, and well above Conab est. of 123 mmt. Census US corn exports for Sept-23 were 125 mil. bu., up 20% from YA and in line with the weekly inspection data.
SOYBEANS
The soybean complex was sharply mixed today. Expiring Nov-23 soybeans were up $.08 while deferred contracts were down $.02 – $.08. Meal jumped $6-$10 a ton with spot Dec-23 surging to a new contract high. Next resistance is $472.50, the July high on the weekly chart. Oil was down 110 – 130, largely in sympathy with lower energy prices. Dec-23 oil held above Friday’s low at 48.79. Weather forecasts for Brazil have shifted back to the pattern it’s been in for several weeks, too hot/dry in the north, too wet in the south. While the crop has been getting planted, the bigger question is how much will need to be replanted and how will the delays impact 2nd crop corn plantings early next year. Early thoughts on replanting have been as low as 5% to as much as 25-30%. Conditions in Argentina continue to move in a more favorable direction. The USDA did announce the sale of 110k tons (4 mil. bu.) of soybeans to China. US harvest progress advanced 6% to 91% complete, toward the low end of expectations. Dr. Michael Cordonnier kept his SA production est. unchanged at 160 mmt for Brazil and 50 mmt for Argentina vs. the USDA est. of 163 mmt and 48 mmt respectively. Chinese customs data from Oct-23 showed total soybean imports at just below 5.2 mmt, down 28% from September however up 25% from Oct-22. YTD imports have reached 82.5 mmt up 14.5% YOY. US census data from Sept-23 showed total soybean exports at 91 mil. bu., up 16% from Sept-22 and in line with the weekly inspections data. Disappointing close particularly given lots of chatter China may have purchased 10 – 15 mil. bu. US soybeans off the PNW for Dec/Jan shipment.
WHEAT
Prices were lower across all 3 classes with MGEX and Chicago $.05 – $.08 lower, while KC was down $.12 – $.14. Dec-23 Chicago briefly traded above its 50 day MA resistance before pulling back in sympathy with KC. Support for Dec-23 KC is at $6.25. Winter wheat plantings advanced 6% to 90% complete, in line with the historical average. Crop ratings improved 3% to 50% G/E, well above the 30% from YA, however in line with the historical norm. IKAR estimate Russia’s wheat export price at the end of last week at $226/mt FOB, up from $224 the previous week. SovEcon est. Russia exported 900k mt of grain last week, down from 1.08 mmt the previous week, of which 760k mt was wheat. Trade sources suggest Jordan has bought 60k mt of milling wheat from their 120k mt tender at roughly $276/mt cf for Feb-24 shipment. Algeria reported purchased around 180k mt of milling wheat at $266/mt CF. FOB price would be approx. $245/mt. Pretty good chance was with Russia.
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