Ag Market View for Nov 6.23
Prices were higher across all 3 classes today with MGEX up $.04 – $.08, while KC and Chicago were $.02 – $.04 higher. Resistance for Dec-23 Chicago rests at the 50 day MA currently $5.81 ¼. Algeria is seeking 50k mt of optional origin wheat in a tender that closes tomorrow. Saudi Arabia indicated they have bought 710k mt of wheat from Saudi producers outside the kingdom, likely means from Russian and/or Ukraine. US export inspections at only 2.6 mil. bu. were a MY low and the lowest in 54 weeks. YTD inspections are down 27% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of down 8%. Ukraine’s winter wheat crop is 89% planted, while they maintain their planted acreage forecast at 4.36 mil HA, down 2% from YA. Last week MM’s sold 9.3k contracts of Chicago wheat and 3.6k contracts of KC wheat. Their KC wheat short position has swelled to nearly 33k contracts, the largest since Aug-2020.
Prices were steady to slightly higher at today’s close, unable to hold earlier strength. Near term resistance for Dec-23 is at the 50 day MA, currently $4.84, followed by the 100 day MA at $5.02 ¾. AgRural estimates Brazil’s 1st corn crop is 66% planted, just ahead of the 63% pace from YA. The Ukrainian Grain Association raised their Ukraine production forecast to nearly 29 mmt, while indicating 23 mmt were available for export, well above the USDA export forecast of 19.5 mmt. US export inspections at 21 mil. bu. were in line with expectations. YTD inspections are up 23% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of up 22%. The USDA also announced the sale of 290k tons (11.4 mil. bu.) of corn to Mexico. Last week, Money managers were net sellers of 44k contracts, extending their short position to just over 144k contracts.
The soybean complex was mixed with beans up $.10 – $.13, meal was steady to down $5 with bear spreading noted, while oil was 125 – 145 higher, in sympathy with higher energy prices. Jan-24 soybeans jumped to a 7 week high with next resistance at $13.83. Dec-23 meal stopped just shy of last week’s contract high at $448.40 before retreating. Dec-23 oil briefly traded back above $.52 before backing off into the close. Next resistance is at 53.49. Export inspections at 77 mil. bu. were in line with expectations. YTD inspections at 448 mil. are down 5% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of down 12%. In addition the USDA announced the sale of 126k tons (4.6 mil. bu.) of soybeans to China. AgRural estimates Brazil soybean plantings have reached 51%, below the YA pace of 57%. Last week MM’s were net buyers of 15.4k contracts of soybeans, 14.6k contracts of soybean meal, while selling just over 7k contracts of oil. The MM long position in meal swelled to nearly 107k contracts, their largest position since Mch-23.
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