Ag Market View for Nov 29.22
Soybean futures ended slightly higher. Bulls are trying to add Argentina dry weather premium. Resistance comes from talk China is buying soybean import needs from Brazil. Trade also watching China response to recent increase in civil unrest due to strict Covid restriction policy. USDA Oct soybean crush is estimated near 195.9 mil bu vs 196.9 last year. End of Oct soyoil stocks are estimated near 2,107 mil lbs vs 2,381 ly. Dalian soybean and soymeal futures were lower. Soyoil and palmoil was higher. Weekly US soybean exports are down 10 pct from last year. Brazil weather is mostly favorable and offset by continued dry weather in Argentina. SF is has a wedge formation from the June high down to Sep high which was traded above near 14.53. Support is from July low up to Oct low with support near 14.00.
Corn future continue to chop around. A wedge technical formation offers resistance near 6.92 from a May high down to a October and November high. Support is near 6.61 from July low up to a November low. Today, CH remains in the Nov 15 range of 6.53-6.77. Bulls feel prices may be oversold and look for a bounce to try to find increase US farmer selling. Some feel US farmer may be done selling for this tax year. Brazil logistics to ports are hampered by protest. Argentina farmer is a reluctant seller due to dry weather. Brazil November corn exports were high at 5 mmt and line up is 5 mmt. Ukraine corn export prices are lowest to buyers but weather and increase risk has slowed exports. Dry US Midwest weather continues to slow barge movement. Potential RR strike could also slow movement and cost $2 billion per day to GDP. Could also slow 7 million commuters travel to work and back. US Congress is trying to pass legislation to avoid a strike. Bears feel slow US corn exports ae larger 2023 supply will eventually be negative to futures. Matif March fell to its lowest close since the first week of July. EU imports saw another near 600 mt for the week, and the pace remains far above either the EU or USDA estimates. Mexico said it is now seeking a deal with the US over GMO corn imports.
WH has traded below 8.00 due to weak demand for US exports. SRW has dropped closer to French prices but US HRW is still a premium to German. Futures have dropped despite continues dry weather in NE, CO and KS. Argentina dry weather has also lowered their corp. Matif closed lower but the Z/H inverse went back out to €13 Tonight the outlook for that is less clear than what was being suggested yesterday, with the French-Russian Fob spreads seemingly equally offset by a very similar freight spread. EU wheat shipments of 26 mt were slower than recently, but vessel count now shows a 17 pct increase vs last year and explains the strength in cash premiums. A big freeze is coming to the Black Sea, and the cash wheat market continues to be strong.
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