Ag Market View for Nov 25.22
Soybean futures remain in the middle of a trading range between 14.00-14.550 SF. Bulls feel dryness in Argentina and S Brazil plus good US soybean crush margins offers support. Weekly US Soybean export sales were 25 mil bu. China was the main buyer. Total commit is near 1,345 mil bu v s 1,326 ly. Some feel China is near done in buying US soybean before Brazil harvest. Feb Brazil soybean prices are below US. Increase cases of Covid in China could increase lockdowns and reduce commodity imports. Crude oil was lower. Matif rapeseed futures are near 10 week lows. Canada canola futures are near 2 month lows. Argentina soybean are 19 pct planted vs 40 average. Argentina farmers look for a new Soya Peso deal to be announced soon. Some forecast US 2022/23 soybean carryout near 280 mil bu vs USDA 220. This due to lower exports.
Corn futures ended higher on low holiday volume and a shortened trading day. CH ended near 6.70. Range was 6.64-6.73. Corn is supported by strong US domestic cash basis and lack of new US farmer selling plus drier than normal conditions across Argentina and S Brazil. Dec corn options expired today. Weekly US corn export sales were 72 mil bu. Total commit is near 699 mil bu vs 1,354 ly. Ukraine corn and Brazil corn export prices are below US. Ukraine grain exports have slowed given recent uncertainly over if the grain export corridor deal will be extended. There remains obstacles in exporting grain from Ukraine. Only 5 grain vessels have shipped from Ukraine since Nov 19. There are long wait times for vessels to go in and out of Ukraine. Freight and cost of insurance are also high due to increase risk. Russia is bombing Ukraine daily with half the country without power. Exporters are buying/using generators to keep grain flowing. What will Russia next move be? Argentina corn is 24 pct planted vs 34 average. Crop is rated 12 G/E vs 81 last year. China domestic corn price is record high. But Covid lockdowns could be slowing food and feed demand. Increase cases of US Avian bird flu is reducing poultry numbers and feed demand.
Wheat futures ended lower led by Chicago. WH ended near 7.92. KWH near 9.10 and MWJ near 9.49. WH dropped below 8.00 on concerns about US exports. KWH is trying to hold above 9.00 due to dry Argentina and US south plains weather. There is a chance for rains in TX and OK but KS, CO and NE remain dry. Russia wheat export prices are below US. Egypt bought Russia wheat. Iraq bought Australia and Canada wheat. Pakistan is tendering for soft wheat. Turkey is tendering for 455 mt wheat, probably Russian. Weekly US wheat export sales were near 18 mil bu. Most of the buying was HRS. Iraq was best buyer. Total export commit is near 488 mil bu vs 523 ly. Matif wheat futures dropped to near August lows. Australia wheat futures traded lower as harvesting advances and talk of higher than expected yields in the west. Argentina wheat crop is 13 pct harvested with crop rated 8 pct G/E vs 53 ly. Crop estimates range from 10.0-12.4 mmt vs USDA 15.5 and 22.1 ly.
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