Written Commentary
Ag Market View for Dec 11.24
December 11, 2024
WHEAT
Wheat futures ended lower. Higher Russia supplies and lower prices continues to offers resistance. Nearby Chicago wheat futures peaked near 14.24 in May, 2022. Prices made new lows this week near 5.41. Weekly US export sales were only 6 mil bu with total commit is near 443 mil bu vs 488 ly. US south plains could see snow and cold temps. This should put the crop in dormancy. Some est US 2024 all wheat US crop near 1,923 mil bu vs 1,812 last year. Demand is estimated near 1,952 vs 1,855 ly. Most of the increase in demand is export. Key is Russia and EU supplies and export numbers. A 1.923 crop could suggest a carryout near 777 mil bu.
SOYBEANS
Soybean futures ended sharply lower. Weekly US soybean export sales were near 35 mil bu with 17 cancelled from unknown. China was best buyer. Total commit is near n1,067 vs 1,339 ly USDA goal is 1,755. Key will be SA weather and China demand. USDA announced 452 mt US soybeans to China and unknown. Argentina weather is normal. Still Argentina farmer is not selling cash due to talk of currency devaluation and new President dropping export taxes. Some estimate Argentina crush near 25 pct of capacity. One unknown order to sell 5,000 soyoil contract in first 15 minutes of trade weighed on soyoil and soybeans. Nearby soybean futures traded down from a high of 17.84 on May, 2022 to a low in 12.70 in May,2023. Futures then rallied to 16.16 on July,2023. Prices dropped to 12.50 in early Oct before rallying to recent high near 13.98. Better SA weather has prices back down to 13.29. Some have increase crush 20 mil bu and exports 5 to put carryout at 225 vs USDA 245. Some feel 2024 US soybean crop will be close to 4,578 mil bu and carryout near 516 which would be bearish.
CORN
Corn futures also ended lower. Weekly US corn export sales were 56 mil bu. Total commit is near 887 mil bu vs 698 ly. Mexico was the best buyer. USDA est exports at 2,075. Some estimate final exports closer to 1,900. This could increase carryout to 2,256 mil bu vs USDA 2,158. Key will be Brazil, Argentina and Ukraine 2024 exports. Better Brazil C/N weather forecast weighed on futures today. Argentina weather is normal. Still Argentina farmer is not selling cash due to talk of currency devaluation and new President dropping export taxes. Ukraine offered a bill to increase export taxes. US has a narrow window to increase export sales. Normal SA weather on Ukraine exports could reduce buying US corn. Nearby corn futures had a high near 8.27 April,2022. Better US 2023 crop dropped prices to a low in Sep of 4.55. Concern about Brazil crop rallied nearby to 5.09 but better weather has nearby back to near 4.61. Some feel 2024 US corn crop will be close to 15,117 mil bu and carryout near 2,666 which would be bearish.
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