Ag Market View for Nov 22.23


Prices closed $.01 – $.02 lower unable to hold early strength.  Dec-23 appears stuck between $4.60 – $4.80 as spreads remain historically wide ahead of FND.  The USDA did announce the sale of 128k tons (5 mil. bu.) of corn to an unknown buyer.  AgroConsults forecasts Brazil’s 23/24 corn crop at 128.7 mmt, very near the USDA est. of 129 mmt.  Their 1st crop est. is 28.7 mmt, with the 2nd being 100 mmt.  Their export forecast at 55 mmt matches the USDA est.  Brazil exports for Nov-23 are expected to reach nearly 8 mmt, while down from Oct-23 it’s still record for the month, up 45% from Nov-22.  Taiwan reportedly bought 65k mt of US feed corn paying $1.57 over May-24 futures.  US ethanol production slipped to 1,023 tbd last week, down from 1,047 the previous week.  Production was below expectations and the lowest in 6 weeks, however just above the pace needed to reach the current USDA corn usage forecast of 5.325 bil. bu. Gasoline usage in the week ended Fri. Nov. 17th at 8.480 mil. barrels per day was down 5% from the previous week, however up 1.8% over YA.  Export sales on Friday are expected to range from 28 – 44 mil. bu.


The soybean complex was lower across the board with beans $.16 – $.20 lower, meal was down $1 – $7 with bull spreading noted, while oil was 60 – 70 lower.  Jan-24 beans could very well be carving out a $13.25 – $14 range.  Dec-23 oil rejected trade over its 50 day MA overnight at 54.34 with today’s pressure likely stemming from lower energy prices.  Spot board crush margins jumped another $.12 today to $2.41 bu., a 4 week high.  Weather in SA continues to be a mixed bag.  Some heavy rains fell in dry areas of WC Brazil, however coverage over 1” was at most 20% of cropland area.  Widely scattered showers are expected to impact this same region over the next several day, however no generally soaking rains are expected.  Brazil’s NE growing region in Bahia and Minas Gerais are expected to remain in a dryer than normal pattern.  Much of the southern states are expected to slip back into a wetter than normal pattern, impeding crop development and replanting efforts.  Argentina remains mostly favorable with a good mix of rain and sunshine.  Late yesterday Abiove left their Brazilian production forecast unchanged at 164.7 mmt, still above the USDA forecast at 163 mmt.  AgroConsults est. Brazil’s crop at 161.6 mmt while seeing their exports holding steady near 101 mmt for calendar year 2024.  Brazilian exports for Nov-23 are expected to reach 5 mmt, well above the 1.9 mmt from Nov-22.  Korean group Nonghyup Feed reportedly purchased 50 – 60k mt of soymeal from US, China, or SA origin for $538/mt CF for April-24 shipment.  Export sales on Friday are expected to range from 30 – 45 mil. bu. for beans, 100 – 200k tons for meal, and -5 to 10k tons soybean oil.


Prices were mixed with Chicago steady to $.02 higher, KC was steady to $.01 lower, while MGEX was $.05 – $.07 lower.  The USDA announced the sale of 110k mt (4 mil. bu.) of SRW wheat to China.  This marks their first announced purchase of US wheat in nearly 6 weeks.  Tunisia is expected to have purchased roughly 100k mt of soft wheat at $279/mt CF in today’s tender.  Final details expected later today.  Constanta port authorities in Romania estimate grain shipments from Jan thru Oct-23 have reached a record 29.4 mmt, of which 11.7 mmt, roughly 40% was Ukrainian grain.  US winter wheat area in drought fell 3% last week to 41%, the lowest reading in over a year and well below the 75% from YA.  Export sales on Friday are expected to range from 6 – 12 mil. bu.   

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