Ag Market View for Nov 21.23


Prices were steady to $.03 higher today with bear spreading noted.  Corn spreads continue to weaken to historically wide levels.  Support for Dec-23 is at last week’s low of $4.61 with resistance at the 50 day MA, currently $4.81 ¼.  Midday reports that Ukraine reported damage to port infrastructure in southern Odessa from Russian missile strikes also provided a price boost.  Argentina’s Pres. elect Milei plan to convert their economy to a dollar based currency is expected to keep farmer selling minimal.   US harvest progress has reached 93%, below YA pace of 96% however above the 5-year Ave. of 91%.  APK-Inform raised their Ukrainian corn production forecast 1.2 mmt to 26 mmt, while increasing their export forecast to 19 mmt.  Both remain below the USDA estimates of 29.5 mmt and 20 mmt.  EU corn imports since July 1st have reached 6.6 mmt, down 44% from YA.  Tomorrow’s weekly ethanol production report is expected to come in slightly above the 1,047 tbd pace from last week. 

QST Corn Chart for 11.21.23


The soybean complex was mostly higher today with beans up $.09 – $.10, meal was mixed with most contracts within $1 of unchanged, while oil surged 100 – 110.  Jan-24 beans recovered all of last Thursday and Friday’s selloff closing near the midpoint of today’s range.   Resistance remains at last week’s high of $13.98 ½, with support at the 50 day MA at $13.27 ¼.  Dec-23 oil traded to a 1 month high stopping just short of 50 day MA resistance at 54.50.  While spot board crush margins were steady today at $2.29 bu., bean oil PV jumped to just over 37%, roughly 1.5% off the recent low.  Northern growing regions of Brazil much of the cropland has received some rain in recent days, however not enough to offset last week’s extreme heat and much below normal precipitation the past few months.  Midday maps continue to lean towards too wet in the south, scattered rains in west central, while below normal precipitation in the east central and north east growing regions over the next week to 10 days.  EU soybean imports since July 1st have reached 4.23 mmt, nearly identical to YA.  Meal imports at 5.71 mmt are down 10.5% from YA.  The Korean Feed Association reportedly bought 68k mt of soybean meal for Feb thru April shipment at an average price just under $555/mt CF.  China’s Ministry of Agricultural maintains their sow herd at 42.1 mil. head at the end of Oct-23 is still too large.  While this is down from 42.4 mil. the previous month and declining for 10 months, they indicate they will take measures to reduce the population to a more reasonable level.  Hog prices are down 42% from YA.  Late in today’s session, Brazilian vegetable oil group Abiove held their production forecast unchanged at 164.7 mmt, just above the USDA est. of 163 mmt. 


Prices were higher across all 3 classes today drawing support from increased tensions in the Black Sea.  Chicago and MGEX were up $.09 – $.12 while KC was up $.05 – $.06.  Ukraine’s Ag. Ministry reports just over 4 mil. HA of winter wheat has been planted, representing just over 92% of intended acreage.  AK-Inform raised their Ukrainian wheat export forecast to 13 mmt, just above the USDA forecast of 12 mmt.  A South Korean feed mill passed on a tender to purchase 51 mt of Australian wheat.  Tunisia is tendering for 100k mt of optional origin soft milling wheat that closes tomorrow.  Jordan reportedly purchased between 50–60k mt of optional origin milling wheat for $273.50/mt CF.  EU soft wheat exports since July have reached 11.6 mmt, down 19% from YA. 

See more market commentary here.

Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.

ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.                  

A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.

© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.  Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM.  The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.

Latest News & Market Commentary

Explore the latest edition of The Ghost in the Machine

Explore Now