Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
CORN
Prices were steady to $.03 higher today with bear spreading noted. Corn spreads continue to weaken to historically wide levels. Support for Dec-23 is at last week’s low of $4.61 with resistance at the 50 day MA, currently $4.81 ¼. Midday reports that Ukraine reported damage to port infrastructure in southern Odessa from Russian missile strikes also provided a price boost. Argentina’s Pres. elect Milei plan to convert their economy to a dollar based currency is expected to keep farmer selling minimal. US harvest progress has reached 93%, below YA pace of 96% however above the 5-year Ave. of 91%. APK-Inform raised their Ukrainian corn production forecast 1.2 mmt to 26 mmt, while increasing their export forecast to 19 mmt. Both remain below the USDA estimates of 29.5 mmt and 20 mmt. EU corn imports since July 1st have reached 6.6 mmt, down 44% from YA. Tomorrow’s weekly ethanol production report is expected to come in slightly above the 1,047 tbd pace from last week.
SOYBEANS
The soybean complex was mostly higher today with beans up $.09 – $.10, meal was mixed with most contracts within $1 of unchanged, while oil surged 100 – 110. Jan-24 beans recovered all of last Thursday and Friday’s selloff closing near the midpoint of today’s range. Resistance remains at last week’s high of $13.98 ½, with support at the 50 day MA at $13.27 ¼. Dec-23 oil traded to a 1 month high stopping just short of 50 day MA resistance at 54.50. While spot board crush margins were steady today at $2.29 bu., bean oil PV jumped to just over 37%, roughly 1.5% off the recent low. Northern growing regions of Brazil much of the cropland has received some rain in recent days, however not enough to offset last week’s extreme heat and much below normal precipitation the past few months. Midday maps continue to lean towards too wet in the south, scattered rains in west central, while below normal precipitation in the east central and north east growing regions over the next week to 10 days. EU soybean imports since July 1st have reached 4.23 mmt, nearly identical to YA. Meal imports at 5.71 mmt are down 10.5% from YA. The Korean Feed Association reportedly bought 68k mt of soybean meal for Feb thru April shipment at an average price just under $555/mt CF. China’s Ministry of Agricultural maintains their sow herd at 42.1 mil. head at the end of Oct-23 is still too large. While this is down from 42.4 mil. the previous month and declining for 10 months, they indicate they will take measures to reduce the population to a more reasonable level. Hog prices are down 42% from YA. Late in today’s session, Brazilian vegetable oil group Abiove held their production forecast unchanged at 164.7 mmt, just above the USDA est. of 163 mmt.
WHEAT
Prices were higher across all 3 classes today drawing support from increased tensions in the Black Sea. Chicago and MGEX were up $.09 – $.12 while KC was up $.05 – $.06. Ukraine’s Ag. Ministry reports just over 4 mil. HA of winter wheat has been planted, representing just over 92% of intended acreage. AK-Inform raised their Ukrainian wheat export forecast to 13 mmt, just above the USDA forecast of 12 mmt. A South Korean feed mill passed on a tender to purchase 51 mt of Australian wheat. Tunisia is tendering for 100k mt of optional origin soft milling wheat that closes tomorrow. Jordan reportedly purchased between 50–60k mt of optional origin milling wheat for $273.50/mt CF. EU soft wheat exports since July have reached 11.6 mmt, down 19% from YA.
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