Ag Market View for Nov 16.23


Corn futures ended higher. Weekly US corn export sales were near 71 mil bu. US corn export commit is near 831 mil bu or 33 pct higher than last year. Sales pace is in line with pace needed to reach USDA export goal. Still some analyst look for final exports to drop below USDA estimate. Key will be Brazil weather. Some feel rains suggest US 2,200 mil bu carryout would be too much just like dry Brazil weather and a US 2,200 carryout would not be enough. Argentina Presidential candidate Melei is promising farmers end of taxation on Ag exports and elimination of Argentina Central Bank. International Grains Council increased World corn crop 4 mmt due to higher US crop. Sharp drop in Crude prices is offering resistance to grains. Crude is down on stock build in Cushing, Oklahoma and concern about China energy demand. Some say China President Xi softness may have been due to their weak economy. 

Hightower World Soybean chart


Soybean futures were lower and linked in part to continued profit taking after Mondays gains and unwillingness to add to higher prices going into key Brazil 2 week weather forecast. Next week, Brazil C/N could see showers. Managed funds were sellers of 9,000 soybean contracts and 7,000 soymeal. US NOPA Oct soybean crush was a record and soyoil stocks were lower than expected and lowest since Dec,2014. Some talk that summer US 2024 crush capacity could increase due to higher soyoil demand. This and normal Argentina 2024 crop could eventually weigh on soymeal futures. Weekly US soybean export sales were near a record 144 mil bu. US soybean export commit is near 1,035 mil bu or 7 pct lower than last year. Sales pace is in line with pace needed to reach USDA export goal. USDA announced 220 mt US soybean sales to Unknown.


Wheat futures ended lower.  Talk of higher Russia supplies continues to offer resistance to futures. US HRW crop areas could see showers over next 5 days. The overall pattern is expected to continue to be drier than normal. Weakness in Crude due to concerns over global demand is weighing on wheat futures. N Africa countries could see needed rains next week. International Grains Council increased World wheat crop 2 mmt due to higher Russia and Turkey crops. Weekly US wheat export sales were 7 mil bu. Total commit is near 437 mil bu or down 33 pct vs last year. USDA is looking for a 8 pct drop.

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