Ag Market View for Nov 16.23

CORN

Corn futures ended higher. Weekly US corn export sales were near 71 mil bu. US corn export commit is near 831 mil bu or 33 pct higher than last year. Sales pace is in line with pace needed to reach USDA export goal. Still some analyst look for final exports to drop below USDA estimate. Key will be Brazil weather. Some feel rains suggest US 2,200 mil bu carryout would be too much just like dry Brazil weather and a US 2,200 carryout would not be enough. Argentina Presidential candidate Melei is promising farmers end of taxation on Ag exports and elimination of Argentina Central Bank. International Grains Council increased World corn crop 4 mmt due to higher US crop. Sharp drop in Crude prices is offering resistance to grains. Crude is down on stock build in Cushing, Oklahoma and concern about China energy demand. Some say China President Xi softness may have been due to their weak economy. 

Hightower World Soybean chart

SOYBEANS

Soybean futures were lower and linked in part to continued profit taking after Mondays gains and unwillingness to add to higher prices going into key Brazil 2 week weather forecast. Next week, Brazil C/N could see showers. Managed funds were sellers of 9,000 soybean contracts and 7,000 soymeal. US NOPA Oct soybean crush was a record and soyoil stocks were lower than expected and lowest since Dec,2014. Some talk that summer US 2024 crush capacity could increase due to higher soyoil demand. This and normal Argentina 2024 crop could eventually weigh on soymeal futures. Weekly US soybean export sales were near a record 144 mil bu. US soybean export commit is near 1,035 mil bu or 7 pct lower than last year. Sales pace is in line with pace needed to reach USDA export goal. USDA announced 220 mt US soybean sales to Unknown.

WHEAT

Wheat futures ended lower.  Talk of higher Russia supplies continues to offer resistance to futures. US HRW crop areas could see showers over next 5 days. The overall pattern is expected to continue to be drier than normal. Weakness in Crude due to concerns over global demand is weighing on wheat futures. N Africa countries could see needed rains next week. International Grains Council increased World wheat crop 2 mmt due to higher Russia and Turkey crops. Weekly US wheat export sales were 7 mil bu. Total commit is near 437 mil bu or down 33 pct vs last year. USDA is looking for a 8 pct drop.

See more market commentary here.

Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.

ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.                  

A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.

© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.  Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM.  The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.

Latest News & Market Commentary

Explore the latest edition of The Ghost in the Machine

Explore Now