Ag Market View for Nov 15.23
Corn futures ended lower. Higher US Dollar, lower crude and increased chances for showers in the dry area of Brazil offered resistance. CH had an outside day closing below Tuesday low. US weekly export sales are estimated near 900-1,500 mt vs 1,105 last week. There is no sign of China interest in US corn. Mexico is the largest buyer of US corn. USDA estimates total US corn exports near 2,025 mil bu. Most private estimates are closer to 1,900. Weekly US ethanol production was higher than last week and last year. Stocks were lowest since Dec,2021. End users look for corn prices to drift lower on slow export demand and concern about global commodity demand.
Soybean futures had a wide range between 13.79 and 13.98. Early weakness was due to some profit talking and unwillingness to add to longs given how important next 2 3 week Brazil weather forecast could be to prices. US Oct NOPA soybean crush was record high at 189.8 mil bu, There will be more capacity added to satisfy growing domestic demand for Soyoil. Soyoil stocks were lowest since Dec,2014. Higher crush forecast has soymeal spreads in an inverse and normal 2024 Argentina soybean supply, crush and soymeal exports could weigh on summer 2024 soymeal futures. Weekly US soybean export sales are estimated near 2,900-4,500 mt vs 1,080 last week. China was an active buyer before US and China talks today. SF has rallied from Oct 12 low near 12.70 to todays high near 13.98. Key will be Brazil weather over the next 2-3 weeks.
Wheat futures ended mixed. WH ended lower. KWH ended unchanged. MWH was slightly higher. US Dollar ended higher. WH range was 5.86-6.04 with low near key support. Demand for US SRW has slowed. KWH range was 6.34-6.49. KWH failed to trade above resistance. Support is near 6.25. Showers are expected across parts of US HRW south plains. Black Sea, EU and now N Africa weather is mostly favorable. MWH range was 7.31-7.38 ended near 7.35. Large net managed fund short could offer support. One year, 2010/11 funds covered their short and futures rallied. The other year, 2013/14 futures traded lower on too much supply.
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