Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
CORN
Corn futures continues to try to push above 4.60 support as US harvest completes and nearby ethanol demand increases. Brazil and Ukraine export prices remain a discount to US. Last week, World 2023/24 corn feed use near 759 mmt vs 756 in Oct and 730 last year. USDA est World corn trade at 199 mmt vs 181 last year. Brazil is 55 mmt vs 57 ly. Argentina 41 vs 23 last year. Ukraine 20 vs 27 ly. US is estimated at 52 mmt vs 42 ly. Some are concerned that exports may only be near 42 mmt. End stocks are estimated near 315 mmt vs 299 last year. This week, one crop watcher lowered Brazil corn crop est to 121 mmt vs USDA 129. They kept their estimate of Argentina corn crop at 55 mmt vs 34 last year.
SOYBEANS
SF had a wide range between 13.68 and 13.89. Early weakness was due to some profit talking and unwillingness to add to longs given how important next 2 3 week Brazil weather forecast could be to prices. Last week, USDA estimated global soybean crush at 383 mmt vs 364 last year. US is est near 65 mmt vs 60 ly. Argentina is 34 vs 30 last year. Brazil is 55 mmt vs 53 ly. USDA estimated World soybean trade at 168 mmt vs 170 ly. Brazil is 97.5 vs 95.5 ly, US 47.7 vs 54.2 ly. End stocks are estimated near 114 mmt vs 100 last year. This week, one crop watcher lowered Brazil soybean crop est to 158 mmt vs USDA 163. They kept their estimate of Argentina soybean crop at 50 mmt vs 25 last year.
WHEAT
Wheat futures ended mixed. WZ and KWZ ended lower. MWZ was higher. US Dollar was sharply lower. Last week, USDA dropped Argentina crop 1.5 mmt, dropped India 3mmt and increased Russia 5.0 mmt USDA estimated World wheat trade at 205 mmt vs 219 ly. Russia is 50 mmt vs 47.5 ly, EU 37.5 vs 35.0, Canada 23.0 vs 25.5 ly and Australia 17.5 vs 31.8 last year. World end stocks are 258.7 vs 269.5 last year. Of the total, China is 134. US HRW weather remans dry. On Monday, USDA dropped US winter wheat crop rating to 47 pct G/E vs 50 last week and 32 last year. EU is wet. Black Sea is normal.
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